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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group
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To: Sun Tzu who wrote (87144)3/28/2003 11:19:06 AM
From: JohnM  Read Replies (2) of 281500
 
As well, we are in the process of seeing some the possible down sides happening. You may recall that I recently argued the direct effect of this administration's policy was to weaken the reformists in Iran and allowed the hardliners to present themselves as the best group to protect the country against US. This was a sentiment that was echoed by Cook and now is spelled out in this article. Recent developments in Iran certainly support this view, especially since the hardliners have resisted the bait to over react while at the same time they have pushed their agenda forward domestically.

Yes, I agree with this argument but have put my agreement in brackets since it's largely based on not too much knowledge and Friedman's columns arguing it. Better than Ledeen but none of it completely satisfies me. I would think, however, that the Bush rhetoric would tend to undermine the divisions of reformer against mullah, in the name of Iranian unity against the great Satan.

As for Syria, the notion of Iran and Syria coming to the aid of Saddam is more than disturbing but still strikes me as extraordinarily unlikely. I have not read your report of Assa's visit to Iran anywhere else, nor, obviously, of his leaving in anger. I guess we'll just wait and see.
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