Now this link:
Message 18764902
It also is possible that Syrian leaders might believe that if they are going to negotiate a strategy for regime preservation, now is the time to do it.
This sums up the likely rationale for Syria's current rumblings. They are isolated, a minority Alawite clan ruling some very hostile Sunnis (many being fundamentalists who's kin were massacred at Hama in 1982)...
But an even more sinister strategy would be if the hardliners in Syria decided to throw their lot in with Iraq in an attempt to widen the war to include Israel (which could not remain on the sidelines).. This could create an "interesting" dynamic and the key question is how the Turks would come in to the battle. (I just posed this scenario to some friends here at work and all of their eyebrows kinda lifted up with a big "hmmm..."...
As for this post, this is my view:
Message 18764904
Both moves would trigger an outcry from South Korea and Japan, thus pressuring the United States to address the situation immediately. And in North Korea's calculations, Washington has only two choices in such circumstances: either launch a pre-emptive strike against North Korean facilities or accede to bilateral talks aimed at ending the nuclear standoff and formulating a non-aggression pact with the North.
I don't see the US entering into Bi-Lateral talks that exclude other regional governments. It's not to our advantage to permit Kim Jong Il to narrow this confrontation to a "one on one".. His actions threaten the entire region.. It's to our advantage to force the Chinese to restrain him.. even if that means permitting Japan to "go nuclear" (which would not thrill Bejing).
As for this post,
Message 14869036
I believe I answered it sufficiently by explaining the predicted increase in the US tax base as more Latinos move here seeking jobs. This may account for a decreasing dollar, as the US is forced to stop subsidizing foreign economic growth through trade deficits and moving toward making US goods more attractive to foreign markets through currency operations. But I still don't see Japan or Europe continuing with their strong currency policies unless they are finally willing to accept the necessary economic restructuring. Nothing has fundamentally changed in Japan.. They still have a national debt equating to approximately 140% of their annual GDP, combined with an aging demographic (and declining tax base due to their general xenophobia towards Gaijins) and social homogeneity (but this may change).. Europe has it's own economic problems with it's aging population and underfunded state pension plans. There will likely be a between those who realize the need for increasing, or at least stabilizing the tax base by importing foreign labor, and those who are more xenophobic towards muslims. It will be interesting to see how that plays out.
To me, every bit you wrote can be, based on any number of officialdom pronouncements, subsequent media parroting, and optimistically, private intentions.
Well, I don't see many voices discussing the demographic aspect of this problem in the middle east. All I've done is applied Harry Dent's theories to the established demographic facts, and recognized that the region is economically stagnant, non-diversified (oil based), with a tremendous population growth that must be accomodated by economic growth. And economic growth is clearly not happening fast enough... And the repercussions of such stagnation will ripple through the rest of the global economy. At least that's my view... And I wish more politicians were willing to discuss it.. I think it's the "elephant sitting in the room' that no one wants to dicuss. Probably because of the racial and cultural overtones that would be implied.
I prefer to not see the final resolution in my lifetime, much like skipping out on a bad movie before it ends
You and me both.. :0) But we still know the movie has to end.. and this one is interactive, where we decide the climax and epilogue well in advance.
The demographic trend is obvious for all you choose to acknowlege it. It's the "pig going through the python" in the middle east.. Thus, the strategic moves we make now to prevent militancy from shaping the outcome of these demographic trends will save countless lives on all sides later on and possibly prevent a "clash of civilizations" (or at least minimize it)..
I don't know if it's possible, but there's a damn good reason that religions should be subservient to a social structure, rather than the other way around. Religions should battle for hearts and minds peacefully, not militarily. And the only way this can feasibly occur, IMO, is when a secular democratic government, with checks and balances, and inalienable rights, is the the arena in which these religiouns interface..
But what do I know?? hehe..
Thanks for making me think on this Friday morning... Always good to have people like you force me to defend my thought process...
Hawk |
