Fred - let me simplify your paths to peace -
Co-Opt and Confront. Also known as the carrot and the stick. Theory Y and Theory X. Which evolved to theory Z - use both the carrot and the stick as appropriate.
...All pretty standard stuff. But, as always, the devil is in the details.
In the case of Iraq - we have already been through theory Y, be nice to Saddam, during the Reagan/Bush Sr. administrations. But that came with a cost - we ended up making a monster into a mini-mega monster. Shame on us.
Then we (via the UN) went to theory Z - the carrot and the stick. In this case the stick was sanctions and the no-fly zones. And the carrot was status and survival. And the cost was continued brutality (around 1000 people a year murdered and many more tortured and maimed). Plus the continued nagging threat of WMD.
...Clearly not a faustian bargain but one that we were able to live with for twelve years.
And then came GWB who upped the ante. Which put Baghdad on it's heels - allowing inspections, U2 overflights, missile destruction. It may not have eliminated the WMD but, at the very least, it was a disruption to such programs - if they exist. And it could have paved the way for 1) improved sanctions and 2) continuous monitoring.
And now we have gone to theory X - no more status and a serious threat to survival. The ultimate benefit - no more threat of WMD and (hopefully) an end to the continuing brutality.
...But the cost - $2.5 billion/day, civillian casualties, increased terror threat, destroyed infrastructure, is significant. AND IT IS GROWING! We are clearly not prepared for the level of humanitarian aid which is needed right now. And I fear that Saddam is in the process of upping this ante by flooding us with Shia casualties that will require both humanitarian and medical aid. It is not inconceivable that we could be left with the aftermath of a Shia genocide done slowly and methodically in front of our very eyes. (It may have already started).
And that is where we are at now. And so it begs the question - are we better off now than we were one month ago?
...I submit that that answer is clearly and unambiguously -NO.
Which leads to the next question - will we be better off next year than we were last year?
...Here , I would submit, the jury is still out. It is still possible that we can storm Baghdad quickly and bring a quick end to this brewing tragedy. But it is also possible that this will drag on for months with the human cost growing exponentially.
Bush's big gamble. And I am sorry but the UN/France/Germany/...s theory Z solution is looking better and better with each passing day. |
