SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Pastimes : Q&A on SI's New Feature: Investor Sentiment
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  
To: John Busby who started this subject3/28/2003 1:54:56 PM
From: Chief AllPredictive   of 82
 
"The art of prophecy is very difficult, especially with respect to the future." (Mark Twain); Dumb versus Smart Agents and Stock Price Forecasting white paper

AllPredictive aggregates forecasts made by individual investors to predict future stock prices. These individual investors are predominantly non-professionals. A natural question arises: How accurate will these aggregated forecasts be? Will they, on average, be at least as accurate as forecasts made by stock analysts?

Just knowing what others think is a useful data point in itself regardless of whether the sentiment is correct. However, in this White Paper, we make an argument that, on average, price forecasts made by a large number of non-professionals will be more accurate than forecasts made by professional forecasters.

Borrowing from economic consumer surveys, stock price forecasts can be very accurate when investors provide their true assessments of future company prospects and its impact on the stock price. These investors are not completely "dumb". They have shown an interest in a particular stock/company and likely have some information about it. That information can come from the fundamental or technical analysis, being users of company's products, or having a recommendation from their financial advisor or a friend. And even if their individual assessments may not be very accurate, their aggregate assessments likely will.

However, it can also be expected that there will be individual stocks or times when "group think" will take over and lead to erroneous predictions. This is not dissimilar to the recent dot com mania that infatuated both individual investors and professional analysts.

Don’t take our word for it – we have extensively quoted people from the industry to make the point. You can download the white paper at siliconinvestor.allpredictive.com.

Peter Braun
Co-founder, AllPredictive
Report TOU ViolationShare This Post
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  

HomeMailHotSubjectMarksPeopleMarksKeepersSettings
Terms Of UseContact UsCopyright/IP PolicyPrivacy PolicyAbout UsFAQAdvertise on SI
© 2026 Knight Sac Media.  Data provided by Twelve Data, Alpha Vantage, and CityFALCON News