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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group
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To: Sun Tzu who wrote (87272)3/28/2003 2:55:25 PM
From: Jacob Snyder  Read Replies (2) of 281500
 
<before Bush can go after anyone else, he has to succeed in Iraq (and I don't mean just military success). Iran is betting that it is not going to happen before Bush is out>

That sounds reasonable. Other implications are:

1. The Iranians (and the N. Koreans) will try to develop nuclear weapons as fast as possible, because those weapons are the only effective deterrent against the U.S.

2. the Iranians have an interest in funding/organizing anti-U.S. guerrilla groups in Iraq, and cause splits between the U.S. and the anti-Saddam Iraqis. The harder they make it, for us to hold Iraq, the lower the odds of a U.S. attack on Iran. They are in an ideal position to do this, given the long frontier and religious affinities. The risk here, is that the U.S. may decide to play "double-or-nothing".
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