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Biotech / Medical : Aviron
AVIR 3.060-12.3%12:44 PM EST
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To: Haolin Ni who wrote (67)7/31/1997 12:05:00 PM
From: Pseudo Biologist   of 645
 
Haolin, first of all, thanks for the change in tone; this is more enjoyable.

There is no question that what one can charge for a flu vaccine that has to be taken at least once a year is a lot less than what one could charge for an HIV vaccine. Several arguments have been made here and elsewhere on how much it could cost to the patient and how much of that amount a vaccine company could take as revenue.

You are correct that projections that ignore present and future competition (in the vaccine arena alone) are too optimistic. I do not know if the 148 million number takes this competition into consideration in a valid or at least defensible manner.

Viral influenza BY ITSELF is not fatal, but influenza-related illnesses have been blamed by health authorities for several thousand deaths a year. I am not sure what exactly killed 20-40 million people in the pandemic of 1918-1919, but many scientists and health researchers blame the "Spanish flu" as a crucial contributive agent. Even in the more recent 1957-1958 epidemic it is said that thousands of deaths were due to "flu-related" illnesses. (for a recent perspective see Nature 363, 401 [1993])

One more comparison with HIV, if I may. While HIV is obviously a much more serious disease, it is relatively easy (at least for adults of able body and mind) to prevent getting infected ("just say no"). Not so for viral influenza, and for the RIGHT PRICE (is that $1 or $10? less?? - I have no idea) many people will gladly pay the buck(s) to do without a few days in bed being miserable.

And thanks again.
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