Dutch Central Bank Sale Announcement Imminent? Message Board

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Politics : Dutch Central Bank Sale Announcement Imminent?

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To: mcg404 who wrote (17702)	3/28/2003 6:15:24 PM
From: sea_urchin	Read Replies (2) of 81092

John >Personally, i'm hedging (at least until xau/hui loses trend line support). Now you're talking my language. IMO, the investor/speculator should have some objective criterion (criteria) which can unambiguously determine whether he should invest or disinvest --- and he must follow it unemotionally. What I didn't mention is that my decision to invest in January 2001 and to disinvest a few weeks ago was determined by a statistical model (actually a multiple regression analysis) which I worked out about 10 years ago and which has served me well since then. The model uses data going back 25 years and is updated every month. Frankly, I can tell you that, if it were not for what this analysis "tells" me, I would not have had the balls either to invest or disinvest when I did. I do accept that the historic facts relevant to the analysis are somewhat different now to what has occurred before on account of the vagaries of the Iraqi war but, nevertheless, I have to follow the model even if it may be wrong. On the basis of the statistical probabilities in the model, however, I can say that there's a 90% chance that it is right.

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