N81 i have been thinking about the vtreport data as 3/25.
My thought drift, the bits and pieces.
I noted on Wednesday an extraordinary event, for the first time in 5 years i noted that every 31indexes covered by Threshold trader was in the NEUTRAL position.
TAers can fuss and fume but for now the market has been explosive on exogenous events.
And in the near term any sudden major negative OR positive event would drive market EXPLOSIVELY down or UP.
The net long is very slight, it is virtually neutral weighted.
I feel the commercials shot up on their long side to get into a neutral hedge in order to be positioned for either eventuality.
The commercials are saying, we do NOT know, let's get to 50/50(virtual 50/50).
I believe this is a realistic concession on their part.
Also the extraordinary move in the ^XAU today(it's strongest day since 12/12/2002) was based on two news events.
General Wallace and his headline making statement that was in the Washihgton Post Friday morning.
Saying that the huge virtual reality war game played by the Pentagon was NOT based on the enemy that we are fighting and therefore it, the war game, was seriously flawed.
Rumsfeld when confronted with what Wallace said at his Press Conference made an on the spot majorly evasive and deceptive answer.
He said that given how we know how cruel and lowdown this regime of Iraq is, it is hardly a surprise that enemy has been what it has been..
A boldface dodging of what Wallace was actually saying.
Wallace was saying they have proved to be quite significantly more hostile and determined than the war game programmed.
We can surmise they expected no resistance in the south and naught but mass surrender.
And that the war game had the Iraqi troops at low moral and just waiting the chance to throw down their arms.
This has proven NOT to be the enemy, and that was what Wallace was saying.
i would not be surprised if Wallace will be coming out with a "i was misunderstood" statement--that would not at all be surprising.
The second reason for the ^XAU run up was the building Syria and Iran story and Rumsfeld statement of if they persist in assistig Iraq(such as supplying them with night goggles) they will be judged to be COMBATANTS(that is a declaration of war, imo).
The only real chance of Saddam being eliminated soon is the Delta Force as that is their singular mission, and have been working at it 24/7 for over one year.
i now state, as a free thinking individual, that i believe even if we won this war next week we have ALREADY lost the peace.
it is obvious to me that the occupation will be a disaster, all we have done is greatly intensified the disdain for this country within that geographic area(and elsewhere, for that matter).
The Iron Heel grinding your much less weapon capable opposition's face into the ground never works; in occupation all americans in Iraq post war will have to watch their back and we will be in constant "repress and irradicate" mode.
The fact that even now the Brits are explaining how they intend to pacify Basra(exterminate the Baath Party, they feel is the solution) is the tip of an iceberg--Basra was always considered a walk-in and receive congratulations, and turned instead into a briar patch.
And as for the North, the U.S. is blind to Iraqi pride and nationalism that overrides for some their hate Saddam Hussein and in the aftermath of his likely demise, the majority will shift their hatred specifically at us.
With Saddam dead they will just shift to nationalism and a deep desire to make the occupiers life hell.
The majority of americans i believe live in a deep delusion of how the world "really likes us".
The Roman Empire was despised and so will be our Empire.
To the world now in the main all americans are viewed naught but as a people like Rich and Ground-Zero; the Bush administration have done all they can to justify such a perception.
I am in extra-ordinary long term gloom mode.
i think i will dig up my longtime 'since i read book', "The Damned Human Race " written by who i consider a must be on the list of the of the Top Ten Great Americans, that also acheived fame---Samuel Clemens/Mark Twain.Max |
