MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA

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To: J.T. who wrote (16729)	3/29/2003 2:49:06 PM
From: Alex MG	Read Replies (2) of 19219

<<DOW 1,500 Point UP WEEK DEAD AHEAD by the end of April.>> While the greed-driven euphoric war rally was certainly exciting, three hard facts conspire against its very survival. First, the US equity markets were far too overvalued to reach a serious long-term bottom before the war rally began and they are even more overvalued today. Second, the war rally didn’t emerge out of fear as no distinct interim-bottoming signature heralded its birth. Finally, when the war rally failed at the S&P 500’s 200dma, a powerful topping signature was witnessed, suggesting that the markets are destined to plunge soon. In the absence of a major VIX spike, speculators have to assume that the war rally is purely emotional based on irrational euphoria and that it is probably already dead! From a technical sentiment perspective, the awesome war rally looks to be fake, a purely emotional buying panic and short-covering bonanza spawned by a distant foreign war not even remotely related to the US stock markets. zealllc.com

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