gulf-news.com
Dubai:Monday, March 31, 2003
Overconfidence allies' biggest mistake
Abu Dhabi |By A Staff Reporter | 31-03-2003
U.S. and British leaders have started to lose their tempers because of the tough Iraqi resistance against their invasion of the Arab country and this might prompt them to destroy Baghdad, according to Egypt's former defence minister.
Marshal Abdul Halim Abu Ghazala said overconfidence was the coalition's biggest mistake in the invasion of Iraq and expected Iraq's elite Republican Guard forces to fight to death in their defence of Baghdad against the advancing allied troops.
Writing in Arabic newspapers yesterday, Abu Ghazala said the U.S. had made a serious mistake when it thought it would easily crush Iraq as it did during the 1991 Gulf war and in Afghanistan, where an extensive air campaign quickly ended the ruling Taliban regime.
"There is no doubt that the prolonged Iraqi resistance will rekindle world public opinion against this war, especially in the West...it is also causing the leaders of the United States and Britain to lose their tempers and this could prompt them to commit serious mistakes, like destroying all civilian utilities and killing more civilians," he said.
" This will only lead to an escalation in world public opinion and a resurgence of American memories of their tragedies in Vietnam, Korea, Somalia and Lebanon ... this in turn will put heavy pressure on the Bush administration to quit the Iraqi quagmire."
Abu Ghazala, one of the most prominent Arab defence analysts, said he believed the coalition forces which invaded Iraq on March 21 have been suffering losses in the fighting against the Iraqis because of their rush towards Baghdad.
"In my opinion, over-confidence is the biggest mistake committed by U.S. planners who ordered their forces to advance quickly ... it seems that the American military command is largely influenced by the 1991 Gulf war, which ended in just 100 hours and in Afghanistan ... it thought that it could even finish the task quicker in Iraq given its far superior armament and technology ... that is why their plan was to push swiftly into Iraq and reach Baghdad, besiege it and finish the war quickly according to Bush's wish," he said.
"I believe their forces will besiege Baghdad from several sides but will remain outside the range of Iraqi fire ... they will then launch an extensive bombing campaign and mount a psychological war against the defending troops to force them to surrender."
But Abu Ghazala said he expected a costly allied campaign against Iraq and its capital, adding the more losses the allies suffer, the more violent their leaders will turn.
He said previous U.S. war experiences showed that the Americans turned more violent against towns and cities when they suffered increased casualties. He referred to the U.S. nuclear attack on Japan during World War II and the random bombing of Hanoi in Vietnam.
"It is clear that Bush will be even more violent than his predecessors ... I do not rule out that he might order the bombing of Baghdad with all available conventional weapons that could trigger a major human catastrophe ... I believe his defence secretary, Donald Rumsfeld, will try and do his best to prompt the president to take such an action," he said.
Abu Ghazala predicted heavy losses in coalition forces during the battle for Baghdad as three Republican Guard divisions are already deployed in its outskirts while hundreds of thousands of other Iraqi troops are entrenched inside the city.
" It is certain that those divisions will defend Baghdad fiercely as they will actually be defending their existence because they know they will be the first to be prosecuted after the end of the war for their so-called crimes against the Iraqi people ... that is why I expect the allied air campaign to target the Republican Guard units in the coming few days ... but I also expect those units to inflict big losses among the American and British forces." |
