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Politics : Dutch Central Bank Sale Announcement Imminent?
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To: sea_urchin who wrote (17706)3/31/2003 7:41:04 AM
From: mcg404  Read Replies (1) of 81101
 
Hi Searle: re: my earlier comment 'No sense continuing this discussion' In hindsight, i realize this statement sounds dismissive - which was not my intent. I respect your opinions (for the most common and useless of reasons, they frequently mirror my own!) and was only trying to say that, like you, i've heard already heard the con arguments and it doesn't matter what Searle or John thinks anyways - the collective decision making of the markets will give us the one 'correct' answer.

<statistical model...multiple regression...there's a 90% chance that it is right.>

Sounds reasonable...if you believe human behavior can be modeled (which i do). But it still can't tell you if 'this time it's different'. But if you're right 90% of the time, it doesn't matter.

James Surowiecki wrote an interesting article a couple weeks ago (which is no longer available online) about the use of artificial markets as tools to predict future events. Gave examples of hewlett-packard creating an artificial market allowing employees to buy/sell shares depending on what they thought company sales would be in a particular month and plans by the US defense department to set up a 'market' to speculate on strategic and geopolitical events. Bottom line being that it's difficult to outperform the predictive decision making ability of the 'crowd'. And 'the crowd' is always right about share price anyways, even when they're not.

John
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