PRESIDENT GEORGE W. BUSH Message Board

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Politics : PRESIDENT GEORGE W. BUSH

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To: Techplayer who wrote (382821)	3/31/2003 1:33:23 PM
From: DuckTapeSunroof	Read Replies (1) of 769670

The main concern - I believe - is not for the inevitable military success of the current campaign... it is for the difficulties and costs attendant to the post-war occupation of the nation. A task made more difficult and expensive by the Iranian designs on extending their influence with the clear majority of the Iraqi population that shares the Shia religion with them. A simple 'majority rules' experiment in Democracy could easily result in the splintering of the country along ethnic and religious lines... with a large gain for Iran. If the Shia in the southern half of Iraq seek affiliation with Iran, and the Kurds in the northern-most 20% also pull away from central authority... there will be little left to be called 'Iraq'. The US Army War College has conducted two studies addressing the military needs of a post-Saddam Iraq (defense of the nation from fundamentalist radicals within, and from Iran and other nations from without... as well as the need to maintain order among 20 million fractious 'Iraqis') and determined that 65,000 to 80,000 Army personnel would be required in country for '5 to 10 years' at least. The expense, obviously, will be large and of a fairly long duration.

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