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To: Dan Duchardt who wrote (9794)	4/1/2003 7:18:57 AM
From: GrillSgt	Read Replies (2) of 10157

I have no idea. <g> Because this should have been in upcycle nut it was coming in Day 14 and leaving me clueless now just like last cycle. We've retraced over 50% of this cycle's highs which would be very unusual for an upcycle and also the duration is rare but it's existance is supported by daily stochs that are still descending. we could start a new cycle tomorrow but there is an outside chance (30%) we have day 15 down tomorrow too. Volume remains light on down days further suggesting this is corrective. Only a few cycles have gone 15 days but I have seen it more in last year then before. And if that's not enough, today was the tth consecutive day down in upcycle...an even occurrring less than 5% of the time. With both OBV and the P/C Index on a Sell signal the initial bias is for the next cycle to be a Down cycle. We're certainly due for an oversold bounce of some sort so I thought we we're setting up for a new cycle beginning (as always) on an up day and I thought it would have have ushered in day 1 of new down. Btw, that would have jived with Velo's count as well. With that gap I bought 844 yesterday. Liked my chances considering all of the above, two open gaps above and an untouched pivot point magnetizing upward. Started looking seet around 11 am back on the down t/l and I started believing we would break thru 850/852 and actually get the gap fill. Or at a minimum the globex high of 589. Then I decided Velo was wrong because I liked the idea of the 12/2 decline to 3/12 as a 5 wave count and "knew" the B was done a 844 today and we were headed to 900+ to complet the C. As we rolllled back down late I sarted considering that just perhaps this was a 9 day up cycle that ended last Monday. I know that would be two in a row and rare at that, but all the daily charts were pointing down and the weekly were tipping as well. I still dont favor it. If next 3 days were down I would say yes. During the last half hour I looked over and saw Velo had nailed iday updates. So..what were/are you thinking? <gg>

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