Randolph:
On the subject of Microsoft not shipping Sun's JFC technology. In my humble opinion Microsoft just put the nails on its own coffin and making sure it will not continue to have its traditional growth as a software tool and technology provider. They have always been successful in following the fundamental concept of and only the paranoid survived and following the trend the industry as a whole has been following. They have even contributed to the trend because mainly the industry has been disorganized to define or to understand what should the trend be in the first place! ,However, this time around Microsoft's justifiable paranoia has blinded them thus preventing them to see their way out! Or perhaps they have seen the path out, and their last minute stubbornness is their last attempt to hold on to something that made them what they are today. I, IMHO, believe they have seen their path out as they are rapidly shifting their business strategy to what I call controlling the highways rather than making the cars that travel on those highways, and they are just fighting a losing battle to still hold on to their car manufacturing capabilities!
I am most confident, again IMHO, that the computing world will no longer accept Microsoft's proprietary technology, and I consider myself a Microsoft Windows bigot who as a software developer have been designing and implementing graphical user interfaces on Windows platform and APIs ever since Windows operating system and Microsoft's proposed APIs were introduced to the industry. Sun, with its Java technology, has made the Microsoft hack technology an obsolete notion. The concept of writing GUIs, database and user specific applications have become a trivial matter with an easy to use, logical and architecturally sound open technology (namely Java). If Microsoft wants to distance itself from these standards and have their own Java virtual machine that deviates from the rest of the industry (i.e. as introduced by Sun), they are about to face a huge shock. No major software vendor and database company will accept Microsoft's version of Java, and this I can state with strong convictions. The thin client model requires an industry wide acceptance of Java VM, and that Java VM is not the one that is about to be introduced by Microsoft!!
Again IMHO, I believe deep down Microsoft is aware of its loss in this battle and the last minute attempts are nothing more than their last minute losing resistance to be assimilated by Sun (and its partners). However they have a brilliant strategy now as their pursuant of and only the paranoid survived philosophy is taking them into a whole new area of media and telecommunication monopoly and manipulation (the highways on which cars made by Sun provided technology will travel on)! There will be a transitional period for this new strategy to succeed (perhaps a year), but if past is any indication of the future they will succeed, which ultimately will continue to benefit Sun and all its partners greatly. Meanwhile, majority of investors whose love for Wintel continues to blind their eyes to see the direction the industry will be taking, continue to bid up Wintel only to lose big time shortly as Microsoft will be showing drastic slow down in this transitional period to its control of the highways. This drastic slow down and the shock, love blinded Wintel (in particular Microsoft) Investors, will face, will come to surface perhaps as early as end of the 3rd quarter/mid 4th quarter of this year. This is the time Sun\022s thin client concept will take off as its partners will be introducing their next generation of products to the market. Meanwhile Microsoft can continue to dream of the return of the good old days till their new business strategy takes its place (perhaps by the mid to end of 1998). And if (actually when) Microsoft's shares hit the low to high 90, by the end of this year, I for one will buy as many shares as I can, because this will be a temporary situation, and once the new business strategy comes to play Microsoft will be able to generate its traditional impressive earnings.
Meanwhile, Sun despite the fact that I still think, will be re-visiting the high 30s, low 40s sometime within the next 2 months, before its move to new highs, will be shining! The lows will continue to be higher, and the highs will continue to be higher and more often!
Regards,
Addi Jamshidi |
