Techie get used to it, the market is playing(NOT investing in), but playing the market on any news whatever.
This is all quick money action(because smart-money knows it better gather and then store away all the nuts it can while it can; trading up/down the key now--someone suggested a trading range in SPX of 700 to 950 for some time; that is a reasonable idea.
The play now is ANY remote indication the war "will have aa quick end" will be played hard upside.
The dollar is rising tonight and futures heavily in the green because Karbala is looking ready to fall(zero surprise) and the saving of a POW.
I listen to the Baghdad correspondent Mei Ying Wells on, that subversive anti-american(LOL!) Democracy Radio network, that gave a report tonight of some 15minutes regards how those she has known as friends, looking to the U.S. as a liberator and eradicator of Saddam Hussein and his Regime have now shifted to a strong hatred of both Hussein and U.S.
She knows people that despise Hussein and just never publicly speak against him out of fear who are, eventhough they still hate Hussein, saying Hussein is Great if they get foreign news camera before them in order to signal their hatred of the U.S.
Before this war those that looked in hope that at the U.S. as a country with just the purpose to rid them of Hussein and his sons have now taken a dramatic shift to awakening to the fact the U.S. is coming to conquer and OCCUPY.
Mei Ying Wells(sp?) says the anti-american feeling among Iraqi moderates is rising rapidly.
I hereby suggest there is a strong chance Iraq will become to the the U.S. as Palestine to is Israel.
Our occupation will turn into one long repression in which the the significant majority of the iraqi populace following the fall of Saddam's regime will do all they can to drive us out of THEIR COUNTRY.
U.S. public does NOT have a bloody clue to the forces of Iraqi Pride and Arabic Pride.
The moderates of Baghdad have been enraged by our 'Shock and Awe' and guess what, they they don't like us no more(wonder why/duh!)
All this does have a MAJOR relationship to our market longterm.
Once the PLAY "we will win we will win" falls into either a prolonged battle and/or THE OCCUPATION of a country that does NOT want us there and in which an effectively hostile the majority is embedded, guess what, our tanking economy will get back into the news and blends with "The Occupation".
So i predict, the combination of a hated occupation by the arabic mass majority and the sick economy will converge and the MOAL will come to pass (the Mother of All Lows).
That after perhaps 4-7 months)
In interim, the war of and by itself will be ripping the market one way of another--this could last a month/2 months ,have no idea.
Final SWAG; al Quida and their offspring terrorist groups will wait until Saddam is dead as they truly despise Saddam Hussein.
After the death of Saddam they will then take the cause of Free Iraq of the americans.
As a thinking individual i do, have and continue to see "Operation Bush the Conqueror Worm(Shrub)" vision of a free happy american controlled arabic world to be a dangerous megalomania messianic delusion that as the public buys into are buying into a timebomb.
In the longrun gold will explode as world instability remains a constant, one crisis to another crisis, our deficit becomes outrageous( and inflation occurs as a direct result of this ever escalating event of 'the deficit bubble') and the impregnably smug complacent american populace that listen only to ITS thoughts will begin to crack and worry obsessively.
Other than that everything looks great:)
Go Eagles.Go Phils, Go Sixers!!!, i always got that to pass the time as my,an old guy, i won't have to view all this for much more than another decade, but to the young think hard, think hard.Max |
