Banks' Increasing Use of Swaps
May Boost Credit-Risk Exposure
By HENNY SENDER and MARCUS WALKER
Staff Reporters of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
When companies default on their debt, banks in the U.S. and Europe increasingly will have to pick up the tab.
That is the conclusion of Fitch Ratings, the credit-rating concern. Desperate for better returns, more banks are turning to the "credit default" markets, a sphere once dominated by insurers. In a recent report, Fitch says the banks -- as they use these derivatives to sell insurance against default by their borrowers -- are adding to their credit risk.
The trend toward selling protection, rather than lending, could well raise borrowing costs for many companies. It also may mean greater risk for banks that increasingly are attracted to the business of selling protection, potentially weakening the financial system as a whole if credit quality remains troubled. One Canadian bank, for example, lent a large sum to WorldCom Inc., which filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection last year. Rather than hedging its loan to the distressed telecom company by buying protection, it increased its exposure by selling protection. The premium it earned by selling insurance, though, fell far short of what it both lost on the loan and had to pay out to the bank on the other side of the credit default swap.
"The whole DNA of banks is changing. The act of lending used to be part of the organic face of the bank," says Frank Accetta, an executive director at Morgan Stanley who works in the loan-portfolio management department. "Nobody used to sit down and calculate the cost of lending. Now banks are realizing that you can take on the same risk at more attractive prices by selling protection."
Despite its youth, the unregulated, informal credit-default swap market has grown sharply to total almost $2 trillion in face value of outstanding contracts, according to estimates from the British Bankers Association, which does the most comprehensive global study of the market. That is up from less than $900 billion just two years ago. (The BBA says the estimate contains a good amount of double counting, but it uses the same method over time and thus its estimates are considered a good measuring stick of relative change in the credit-default swap market.) Usually, banks have primarily bought protection to hedge their lending exposure, while insurers have sold protection. But Fitch's study, as well as banks' own financial statements and anecdotal evidence, shows that banks are becoming more active sellers of protection, thereby altering their risk profiles.
The shift toward selling more protection comes as European and American banks trumpet their reduced credit risk. And it is true that such banks have cut the size of their loan exposures, either by taking smaller slices of loans or selling such loans to other banks. They also have diversified their sources of profit by trying to snare more lucrative investment-banking business and other fee-based activity.
Whether banks lend money or sell insurance protection, the downside is generally similar: The bank takes a hit if a company defaults, cushioned by whatever amount can eventually be recovered. (Though lenders are first in line in bankruptcy court; sellers of such protection are further back in the queue.)
But the upside differs substantially between lenders and sellers of protection. Banks don't generally charge their corporate borrowers much when they make a loan because they hope to get other, more lucrative assignments from the relationship. So if a bank extends $100 million to an industrial client, the bank may pocket $100,000 annually over the life of the loan. By contrast, the credit-default swap market prices corporate risk far more systematically, devoid of relationship issues. So if banks sell $100 million of insurance to protect another party against a default by that same company, the bank can receive, say, $3 million annually in the equivalent of insurance premiums (depending on the company's creditworthiness).
All this comes as the traditional lending business is becoming less lucrative. The credit-derivatives market highlights the degree to which bankers underprice corporate loans, and, as a result, bankers expect the price of such loans to rise.
"We see a change over time in the way loans are priced and structured," says Michael Pohly, head of credit derivatives at Morgan Stanley. "The lending market is becoming more aligned with the rest of the capital markets." In one possible sign of the trend away from traditional lending, the average bank syndicate has dropped from 30 lenders in 1995 to about 17 now, according to data from Loan Pricing Corp.
Some of the biggest players in the market, such as J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., are net sellers of such insurance, according to J.P. Morgan's financial statements. In its annual report, J.P. Morgan notes that the mismatch between its bought and sold positions can be explained by the fact that, while it doesn't always hedge, "the risk positions are largely matched." A spokesman declined to comment.
But smaller German banks, some of them backed by regional governments, are also active sellers, according to Fitch. "Low margins in the domestic market have compelled many German state-guaranteed banks to search for alternative sources of higher yielding assets, such as credit derivatives," the report notes. These include the regional banks Westdeutsche Landesbank, Bayerische Landesbank, Bankgesellschaft Berlin and Landesbank Hessen-Thueringen, according to market participants. The state-owned Landesbanken in particular have been searching for ways to improve their meager profits in time for 2005, when they are due to lose their government support under pressure from the European Union.
Deutsche Bank AG is one of biggest players in the market. It is also among the furthest along in introducing more-rational pricing to reflect the implicit subsidy in making loans. At Deutsche Bank, "loan approvals now are scrutinized for economic shortfall" between what the bank could earn selling protection and what it makes on the loan, says Rajeev Misra, the London-based head of global credit trading.
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