DJ, stratfor.biz
India Seeks Assurances Amid Postwar Concerns
Apr 03, 2003
Summary
Indian External Affairs Minister Yashwant Sinha reacted sharply to recent comments by U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell that Washington would look at the India-Pakistan conflict and South Asian security after the war in Iraq. Sinha said, "It is our war," adding that foreign assistance should be limited to countering cross-border terrorism. With Washington talking of turning its sights toward South Asia, New Delhi will seek support from other countries opposed to perceived U.S. expansionism -- including China.
Analysis
Indian External Affairs Minister Yashwant Sinha, speaking at an Indian Council of World Affairs book release in New Delhi on April 1, warned the United States to stay out of Kashmir. Responding to remarks published in the Washington Times by U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell, who said that the India-Pakistan rivalry was part of a broader agenda Washington would return to after the war in Iraq, Sinha said, "I must make it clear that the role of outsiders is limited to cross-border terrorism." He also said, "To the extent to which any other country would pressure Pakistan as part of the global war on terrorism, it is fine but it is our war."
Sinha's remarks exemplify the strains between Washington and New Delhi that stem from their divergent views on the war in Iraq. This came on top of India's criticism that the United States has failed to pressure Islamabad to stop the cross-border movement of militants in the disputed state of Kashmir. With relations on rocky ground, New Delhi will turn to other countries for support -- including long-time rival China.
In recent weeks, the United States has been increasing pressure on Pakistan, leaking information on purchases of missiles from North Korea and the sale of nuclear technology to Pyongyang. At the same time, Washington continues to work with Islamabad in the war against terrorism, jointly arresting suspected al Qaeda members and supporting Afghan operations from Pakistan.
The spotlight on Pakistan is shifting to a broader regional focus as the U.S. administration begins to plot a post-Iraq course. Powell's comments that the United States would refocus its attention on South Asia might well have been directed toward Pakistan, but just as likely were innocuous remarks to show Washington was still aware of its responsibilities in places other than Iraq or Afghanistan.
But New Delhi has interpreted the remarks as a potential encroachment on its own interests. India is concerned that if the United States does turn its attention to Pakistan after Iraq -- a not entirely unlikely scenario -- that India might be presented with a fait accompli regarding the divided Kashmir province. And in the longer run, New Delhi is concerned that if Washington treats Pakistan the same way it is treating Iraq, India could be left with a U.S. enclave on its western border -- which would seriously hamper New Delhi's goal of becoming a key regional power.
New Delhi is now turning to its traditional ally Russia for support: The two countries recently held foreign minister-level talks, and they are cooperating on counterterrorism measures. But perhaps more interesting is New Delhi's decision to turn to another regional power -- China. Beijing and New Delhi have been rivals in the past, but India sees China's opposition to the U.S. war in Iraq and Beijing's growing economic clout as something to be harnessed rather than fought at this time.
Recent reports from India suggest that both Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee and Defense Minister George Fernandes plan separate trips to Beijing in the coming weeks. Fernandes, who in the past allegedly has called China the greatest threat to Indian security, will pay a weeklong visit to the Chinese capital sometime after April 20, according to Indian media reports. During the trip, he will discuss a formal demarcation of the disputed border between China and India in Kashmir, and raise concerns over China's growing presence in the Bay of Bengal.
But both Fernandes and Vajpayee also will seek to emphasize the common interests of Beijing and New Delhi, particularly their common stance against the war in Iraq and their mutual concerns regarding what they see as the unipolar and hegemonic actions of the United States. With the uncertainties surrounding Washington's post-Iraq plans, India is seeking assistance from all quarters -- including China. And trying times can make strange bedfellows. |
