To Go Up The Market Must Be Allowed To Go Down
The market is being supported now as a matter of “national security.” I suppose that once we conclude the major initiative in Iraq, that such support could be withdrawn.
To truly advance the market must attract significant new money. This type of money is not going to re-enter the market unless it presents attractive opportunity without excessive risk.
I think that some amount of money believes that at current prices the market does present opportunity (incorrectly but that is just my opinion), however I think that there is a reluctance to venture back into the market because of the perception that also present is substantial risk of capital erosion
Not with standing three years of decline no credible bottom has been developed and tested. There are no “base building” technical patterns in the indices or for that matter in just about any major stock. To the contrary, any move up from here would be built on a base riddled with gaps, thwarted tests, and lacking any real consolidation.
After three years of declines, and given the very tenuous economic and risky geo-political environment, a market built of such is not going to attract the money that growth requires.
Allowing the market to re-test the October lows and then stay there and demonstrate a credible bottom is a necessary precursor to real growth in the equity markets, and the economy which such growth would fuel.
Maybe the market protectors can create an illusion of a sustainable market good enough to fool J6P with RPO's, Future Ramps, and interventions in the FX, Debt, Gold, and commodity markets - but real money did not get that way by being fooled by such smoke and mirrors.
Further, at this time, regardless of how confident he is in the market, J6P does not have the capital.
So if the market is to go up it first must be allowed to go down. |
