Lessons unlearned haunt U.S.
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BY ANDREW GREELEY
Coulmnist
The Chicago Sun-Times
April 4, 2003
suntimes.com
During the Vietnam War, there was a morose song that claimed that Lyndon Johnson had mired the United States in the ''Big Muddy,'' a dark swamp from which there was no escape. Because the U.S. military never seems to learn from its mistakes, it would appear that we are once again deep in the Big Muddy.
The strength of American military might exists in its technology, firepower and air power--none of which is much good against guerrilla warriors who are ready to die. The war in Vietnam was lost finally because our military leadership was never able to cope with the Viet Cong. Is there any reason to think that the leadership of today is better able to cope with the Fedayeen Saddam?
The much-abused CIA warned about the Fedayeen. The geniuses at Defense dismissed the CIA long ago when it refused to report that Iraq was involved in the World Trade Center attack.
I do not blame the troops for getting themselves into the Big Muddy, nor even their officers. I blame the civilian leadership (just as in the time of the Vietnam War) for putting American fighting men and women in what seems to be an impossible position. I blame especially the civilian ''defense intellectuals'' who thought this whole crazy war up. I blame the ''chickenhawks'': Wolfowitz, Perle, Cheney, Kristol and especially Donald Rumsfeld, who is emerging as the Robert McNamara of the early 21st century. McNamara, some readers will remember, was the brilliant corporate executive who as secretary of Defense led the American military into the Big Muddy. A published story now claims that at the start of the planning for his foolish, dangerous war, Rumsfeld thought it could be won in three days with 30,000 troops. Now the generals (like Barry McCaffrey) who fought in the first Iraq war are saying that the 90,000 troops inside Iraq are dangerously few compared with what is needed.
Rumsfeld is telling the world that we will not engage in street war in Baghdad, but rather surround the city and lay siege to it until there's an internal revolution--a cockeyed notion if there ever was one. In both cases, many Americans would die and thousands and thousands of Iraqis. The Brookings Institution has suggested that 5,000 Americans might die and 20,000 might be wounded. They estimate that Iraqi military casualties might exceed 100,000, and civilian casualties might be much higher.
What happens when you want to liberate a country that does not want to be liberated? What happens when the ''only superpower'' is humiliated by a handful of fanatics in flowing desert robes?
Even in details, the venture into the Big Muddy is like the last one. Reporters from the front lines describe serious problems. Central Command headquarters is optimistic in its daily briefings. The Pentagon blames journalists for exaggerating the problems. The president, who now apparently thinks he's Abraham Lincoln (as did Lyndon Johnson), solemnly warns that we will stay the course in a war that will be long and difficult. One wonders why he didn't warn about pro-Saddam Hussein guerrillas before the war. Or even if he knew about them.
So one hears responsible people in nice restaurants returning to the theme of their predecessors 35 years ago: ''Let's kill them all!'' Yeah, and then let's go after the French, too.
The American plan was to ''decapitate'' Iraq in the first air attack, then to ''shock and awe'' them with the biggest air strike in history, then to destroy Saddam's command and control systems, then to accept the surrender of the Iraqi army and deal with those in the leadership who wanted to break away from the Baathist Party's dominance, then finally to accept the acclaim of the liberated Iraqi people.
Don't look now, but none of those things has happened. Who thought they would? The chickenhawks, obviously.
The United States will doubtless win the war eventually (unlike the Vietnam conflict).
The question is at what price in lost influence, credibility and human lives. |
