The Castle Message Board

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : The Castle

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next

To: Lane3 who wrote (1425)	4/4/2003 7:15:23 PM
From: TimF	Read Replies (1) of 7936

Petrol not enough to ride road to recovery By Warren Vieth in Washington April 5 2003 smh.com.au The title of this article suggest that the US will have to cover a lot of the costs and the data at the end is supposed to support that idea but I'm not sure it does. " Estimates of Iraq's potential oil earnings during the first year or two after the war range from about $US15billion ($25million) to $US20billion. But, estimates of Iraq's reconstruction needs alone start at about $25billion and run as high as $100billion. Iraq's external debt - loans taken out from foreign countries and international creditors - totals at least $60billion and may be as much as $130billion." $20bil in the first two years (and then more in later years). Lets say $80bil in loans. I'm not sure what interest rate there is for the loans but lets say $4bil covers it. Lets say oil revenues are 1st year $8bil, second year $12bil, third year $20bil, and then $28bil per year after that. Assume half of the amount can go to interest and reconstruction. So first year reconstruction is only from aid and from frozen assets. 2nd year $4bil, 3rd year $6bil and ever year after that $10bil. Assuming $60bil to rebuild, Iraq would do it without help in 8 years. That is with no aid. Help from overseas would make it quicker. Also I think Iraq has the potential for more then $25bil a year from oil. Saudi exports something like $50 or $60bil of oil a year. Also while oil is Iraq's biggest source of money it isn't the only source. Most of the hard currency comes from oil, but some of the rebuilding work would be done by Iraqi's who could be paid in local currency. Tim

Report TOU Violation

Share This Post

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next