American Xtal Technology, Inc. (AXTI) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : American Xtal Technology, Inc. (AXTI)

AXTI 12.99

-12.3%

Dec 16 3:59 PM EST

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To: John Finley who wrote (253)	4/5/2003 11:29:24 AM
From: The Ox	Read Replies (2) of 290

I grabbed a nice slice (for me that is). Maybe this stock just needed someone to step up to the plate? I see it as a solid value play, as long as one understands the difficulties this company has in front of them. It seems to me that they've lost the decent edge they had over their immediate competitors but I believe that this is mostly because of the sector's collapse. Management was working under the wrong assumptions a couple of years ago and the downturn really caught this company off guard. Of course this is NOT a good thing and it is one of the reasons the street is dumping on this company. Having said this, their move to China should really help over the next few quarters and the numbers should start showing a new reality for AXTI. I'm still very concerned with their ability to make a profit and I have wondered occasionally if management truly understands what it means to be a publicly traded company!?! One or 2 press releases a year? No stock buy back until the stock is trading at 1/6 book value? My guess is that their efforts have had a bit of the tunnel vision on their restructuring and the big move. Jeez, they can buy the whole company with the cash on hand at $0.75/share and still have well over $50 million worth of tangible assets left over! The market cap on Tuesday was $15 million! Even after yesterday the market cap is only $20 million. Having said the above, this quarter's release should give us a better understanding about their future. If their guidance is accurate, they are getting to the point of near break even from a cost of revenue perspective. I will be extremely interested in their guidance for this in the 2nd quarter. If they can show a gross profit before R+D and SGA, then I think they'll have a good chance of getting through this downturn as a viable company. If we get flat to down guidance in this area without a very reasonable explanation, then it will appear that management hasn't really got the job done with all their restructuring. I've talked to Don and he seems very capable of doing what's necessary to get the company back on track. I think the key is not to wait any longer and to bite whatever bullet is necessary to turn this thing around immediately. If you can be profitable during a downturn like this, imagine if this sector were to pick up substantially? As to the InP capability, I think this is an area where sales are really lagging. I don't believe it's a reflection on their tech but just the nature of the marketplace. We should get some more color from the company during the next earnings conf call. It sure was nice seeing the stock pop yesterday. I didn't expect this type of reaction but I'll sure take it! I really believe this stock should be trading in the mid to high 1s at this stage of the game. If they can generate more revenue and continue to improve their cost structure, then the 2s or 3s is not out of the question in a quarter or 2. As long as one understands that this is a microcap that is completely out of favor with Wall St., then I think the company deserves a look. High risk, high reward or failure. mh

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