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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace

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To: John Madarasz who wrote (70537)	4/5/2003 2:47:09 PM
From: AllansAlias	Read Replies (7) of 209892

A must read imo, from a guy who has established himself as someone to be listened to: frontlinethoughts.com Excerpt: I believe we are going to single digit ratios. I also believe it will take a decade or more. In that time, earnings will grow, and probably double or more without having to be too optimistic. What happens in secular bears is that earnings grow and P/E ratios drop. But it does not happen all at once. It takes time. ... The point is that there are those who see the market as under-valued. When it does not go up they blame hedge funds, short sellers and wicked analysts for their losses. There are those who see the market as over-priced and want the market to conform to their worldview, and they see rallies as evidence of the Plunge Protection Team. The world is not as it should be, and there must be some secret reason. That is especially true if they are short and the market goes up. The real reason is what Richard Russell says over and over, "The market is the market. It just is." In a real sense, this is more scary than the possible existence of a plunge protection team. It means we are subject to the vagaries of a market which is out of anyone's ability to control. I bet there have been a few times you wish someone could have made the market go back up. In a world where anything can happen, risk control is everything. It would be nice to know that I could count on some secret group to protect my funds, but it doesn't exist. I am responsible for my own risk protection and personal portfolio.

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