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Biotech / Medical : Aviron
AVIR 3.060-12.3%12:44 PM EST
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To: Pseudo Biologist who wrote (71)7/31/1997 7:03:00 PM
From: Brad C. Dunlap   of 645
 
Hi Pseudo, thanks for your informative post. It appears that some on this thread have inappropriately posted by confusing the 148 million vaccines[Sturza's estimates] with mkt penetration with assumes competition. Even if a product were to capture only 1% of a mkt due to competition, it does not change the mkt size. I know that you do your best to stay current in the biotech sector and was wondering if you have ever read any abstracts with efficacy as powerful as AVIR's product in the flu vaccine arena? The Bear Stearns analyst claims this is the best efficacy ever recorded in a large FDA trial involving flu vaccines.
The typical flu shot lists for approx $4 to $5 at average wholesale price and the total cost for flu vaccines has been about $10 including labor. I am SPECULATING that if AVIR's nasal vaccine can eliminate a good portion of the labor, the margins on this product should be more then exciting. One negative point of concern is when AVIR applies for FDA approval they plan on using prior clinical data from the previous owners of the technology which was obviously out of their control. This is not much of a concern at the present but do believe that this will be a subject that will be scrutinized and feared when the time comes for the FDA panel meeting. Anyways, I have always enjoyed your analysis and look forward to reading your future posts.
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