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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group

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To: Dayuhan who wrote (90521)	4/6/2003 9:32:27 AM
From: quehubo	Read Replies (1) of 281500

Steven - It seems you have taken a firm grasp of energy issues. One way of looking at the savings in oil prices is the disappearance of the war premium. If over the last year we paid $5 a barrel more because added Iraqi risk to supply this totals about about $36,000,000 in savings for the USA and about $146,000,000 in total for the world. For the foreseeable future Oil prices will either be controlled by OPEC or self corrected by market forces staying between $25-30 WTI IMO. The investment we are making in Iraq should be valued in comparison to the gap between $25 a barrel and some much higher price caused by war risk premium or some other shortage of supply caused by a madman either gaining control of the spigot or destroying someone elses supply. The fastest way to wreak havoc on the world and blame the USA is not by nuking Manhatten but by a terror incident that drives oil prices through the roof. Targets in Saudia Arabia can cause this type of oil shortage.

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