Booms, Busts, and Recoveries Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: smolejv@gmx.net who wrote (30895)	4/6/2003 8:12:08 PM
From: Moominoid	Read Replies (1) of 74559

Oil was in 1998 at those levels so it can go down there..... marginal cost in Saudi Arabia/Kuwait etc. is very low and so their oil industry can survive (others may have a hard time). Rapid population growth in both countries has reduced the per capita contribution of oil in $ of GDP anyway. A lower oil price will be good for "recovery" in the West. Longer term the oil price will eventually rise. Expect a year or two to really ramp up Iraqi production. A lot will depend on the security situation down the road in Iraq and the Gulf... Longer term the oil price will eventually rise of course. I expect oil scarcity to kick in before environmental concerns and technological change put any serious dampener on demand...

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