Techie: Let's run some numbers.
Let's start with 22,000 Amati SI posts per year, assume a lurk to post ratio of 100, a posts participation factor of 100 (number of posters), and a post read factor of 25% (in my case 99.99%). So. We have about 22,000 x .25 x 100 = 550,000 opportunities for someone to be convinced to either buy or sell Amati stock.
Let's also assume that for every 100 post someone was actually convinced to make a trade. That's a trade for every 100 opportunities. That's a great book to bill ratio.
Now I'm guessing that the average Amati SI thread participant is trading 1,000 share blocks.
So. For the past year, the Amati SI thread trade index was 550,000 opportunities/100 opportunities/trade x 1000 shares/trade = 5,500,000 Amati SI induced shares traded over the last year.
Let's see. Today's volume was 1,200,00. Granted it was a big day.
Let's assume further that the Amati SI arguments are a draw, i.e., there are equally persuasive arguments to buy and sell.
Conclusion: We Amati SI thread participants are canceling each other out and we are meaningless in the grand scheme of things. |
