The plot thickens.
Convoy Incident Ignites Firestorm in Russia
Apr 06, 2003 - 2156 GMT
Summary
In Russia, all eyes are turning toward President Vladimir Putin, awaiting
his response to a shooting attack on a diplomatic convoy outside Baghdad.
Many Russians blame U.S. forces, believing that Washington was
intentionally seeking to punish Moscow for its diplomatic opposition to the
war in Iraq. The facts of the case remain undetermined, and many theories
could be advanced. However, Putin's response will give some insight as to
which faction -- pro or anti-Western - now has the upper hand in Moscow.
Analysis
A motorcade carrying 25 Russian diplomats - including Russian Ambassador to
Iraq Vladimir Titorenko -- and journalists was twice fired upon April 6 as
officials left Baghdad en route for the Syrian border.
The convoy first took fire about eight kilometers from the capital; one car
was damaged and abandoned. The motorcade moved on another 15 to 30
kilometers, according to various reports, when officials spotted several
military-use vehicles at a distance. Titorenko sent one car ahead, marked
with a white flag, to negotiate passage, but that car was shot at. Five
Russians were wounded - one of them seriously - in the two incidents, and
the travelers are now being treated by Iraqi doctors at Al Fallujah.
It is too early to say who is responsible for the incident. Both the U.S.
and Iraqi governments were informed of the motorcade's departure and its
route, and both sides deny responsibility for the attack. Russian President
Vladimir Putin was informed of the incidents, and both the American and
Iraqi ambassadors to Russia were summoned to the Foreign Ministry in
Moscow, where officials said the Kremlin wants the matter investigated and
those responsible to be punished.
Stratfor sources within the Russian government say the incident has ignited
tremendous controversy, and that it is widely believed that U.S. forces
deliberately attacked the convoy as a means of punishing Russia for its
attempts to block military action against Iraq. Russians believe U.S.
forces did something similar in the Kosovo war by bombing the Chinese
Embassy in Belgrade: U.S. officials said the bombing was accidental; China
supported Yuogslavia in the conflict.
Various groups in Russia have their own reasons to believe the theory being
advanced. Many citizens and government officials believe that Washington
has violated international law and is deliberately humiliating Russia.
During the Soviet era, they believe, Washington would never have dared such
an attack -- on either the convoy or against Iraq -- for fear of deadly
retaliation. A pro-U.S. minority, who control much of Russia's mainstream
media, privately agree that coalition forces likely are responsible for the
convoy attack but believe the action was justified because Moscow did not
support Washington's stance on the Iraq war.
All eyes now turn to Putin: How will he react?
So far, the president has refrained from voicing concern over the incident,
sources say. Based on initial intelligence, Putin shared an opinion with
some close associates that U.S. forces likely are responsible for the
convoy incident -- but even so, the sources say, he is loath to spoil his
warm relations with the United States.
This stance is generating frustration, anger and opposition, even among
some of Putin's close associates, sources say. The president has been
reminded that U.S. forces bombed areas immediately around the Russian
Embassy in Baghdad recently -- likely not by accident, since the coalition
boasts of its precision-strike capabilities. Moreover, U.S. Ambassador to
Russia Alexander Vershbow publicly had warned embassy officials in Baghdad
that they were in danger by staying there; this prompted a formal protest
from the Russian Foreign Ministry to the U.S. State Department. And
meanwhile, Kremlin insiders say, the U.S. government and media are
trumpeting reports -- denied by Moscow -- that Russian military equipment
was delivered to Iraq in the 1990s.
Putin is now under great pressure from the public and some influential
players within his government to react firmly to the convoy incident. His
official response soon will show which camp -- the anti-Western or pro-U.S.
factions -- has the upper hand in Moscow.
Exactly who is responsible for the convoy attack remains unclear. Stratfor
believes that nothing can be excluded at this point, and we are trying to
gather more data. Always suspecting Russia of sympathies toward Iraq -- and
with some grounds -- the United States might have decided that Russia was
trying to smuggle Saddam Hussein out of the besieged capital, hidden inside
a convoy that was shielded by diplomatic immunity. If this was the case,
U.S. Special Operations forces might have wanted to stop or destroy the
convoy to detain or kill Hussein. This is not inconceivable, but it is only
one of several hypotheses that might be put forward at this stage. On the
other hand, Iraqis might have wanted to harm U.S.-Russian relations by
attacking the convoy and blaming U.S. forces. As of now, both the United
States and Iraq blame each other for this incident. |
