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Pastimes : The New Qualcomm - write what you like thread.

QCOM 179.02

+3.7%

3:59 PM EST

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To: Maurice Winn who wrote (6138)	4/7/2003 2:44:20 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (1) of 12229

* Sar Wars * Well Mq, your graph is out of date and there's still a day to go. It's worse than your guess. who.int The death rate is about 7%, not the widely reported 4% which is incorrectly measured as the number dead as a percentage of the total infected to that date. People take several days to die as the infection develops in their lungs. The death rate is actually "Of those infected, what % die from their infection?" and that rate is 7% overall, with people in the USA not dying for some reason. Cumulative deaths. Bad counting in the early days due to poor reporting from China. x = 10 dead, rounded to the nearest 10. 26 Feb ? ..5 Mar x 12 Mar x 19 Mar x 26 Mar xx ..2 Apr xxxxx ..9 Apr xxxxxxxxxx [98 already, on 7 April, not 90] 16 Apr xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx [another 20 added] . . . .. . . . . . 31 Dec 2003 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx ???!! Or what?? Any country which doesn't control the infection is going to find itself totally isolated by the rest of the world. Visitors will be obliged to go straight into quarantine on return to uninfected countries. Aircraft will land at special quarantine sites. If this isn't brought under control, it will become completely unmanageable. People will change their habits to reduce infection risk. The doubling time is only about 10 days, so within a year, there could be a LOT of people dealing with it. But so far, it seems to only get a grip on Chinese areas or maybe it's very densely populated areas with lots of indoors living, such as Hong Kong and Toronto. No deaths in USA despite lots of people and suspected cases being investigated. Maybe Homeland Security is working. Mqurice

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