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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 303.84

+1.3%

Dec 22 4:00 PM EST

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To: Gottfried who wrote (9316)	4/7/2003 8:00:16 PM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (1) of 95622

Semiconductors . . . Vitesse Semiconductor said its Timestream chip product line is being used in Lucent Technologies' Metropolis DMX access multiplexer networking equipment. First Albany cut its growth estimates for the Semiconductor industry from 8% for 2003 to -5% (plus or minus 10%), with a point estimate of 0% growth. Firm believes the impact of SARS on the semiconductor economy is going to be larger than that of the war with Iraq. The firm thinks that SARS is likely to have an incremental negative impact over the next couple of quarters that is not comprehended in Wall Street models. The firm noted that roughly 70-90% of all PCs are assembled in Asia. Firm recommends reducing exposure to the group. JMP Securities downgrades Linear Tech and Maxim Integrated to Market Underperform from Market Perform based on rich valuation as well as their long-term concerns regarding a slowdown in secular growth rates in the high-end analog market and intensified competition. Linear Tech target is $22, Maxim Integrated target is $28. Broadcom will allow employees to exchange under-water options. Eligible employees holding options to purchase Broadcom common stock with exercise prices per share of $23.58 or more will be given the opportunity to exchange those options for a number of new shares or new options based on formulas set forth in the Offer. A total of 57 million options are eligible for participation in this program. BRCM expects to take a $238 million charge in connection with the offer. Boxmakers . . . Dell Computer cut to Hold by Shelby Seyrafi at AG Edwards based on valuation. The firm believes DELL shares are now fairly valued at about 30x their 2003 estimate of $0.99 and about 25x their 2004 estimate of $1.17 given the current geopolitical environment and their belief that IT spending will likely remain muted throughout 2003. Seyrafi said that while the company is "solid" and has "sound" growth prospects. EMS . . . Jabil Circuit upgraded at Needham to Strong Buy from Buy due to increased confidence that their 2003-04 EPS estimates can be achieved as well as their belief that industry diversification, especially in the medical sector, will be successful. Target is $29. Wireless . . . Qualcomm cut to Sector Perform at RBC from Sector Outperform due to heightened concerns regarding CDMA handset unit growth in China and Korea, as well as their expectation of improved traction of NOK's CDMA products. Therefore, firm believes slower near-term growth may reduce the premium multiple in which QCOM shares trade. The firm cuts price target to $38 from $45. Nokia's CEO made comments over the weekend that the current war and political uncertainty have had no impact on handset sales. While this comment likely reconfirms the company's strong 1st quarter handset performance we believe that the comments also bode well for 2nd quarter as well. NOK is poised to ramp its new line-up of mid to high-end handsets in 2nd quarter that should help stabilize ASP’s and assist market share. Expect cont’d weak commentary on the mobile systems business in the Quarter report but we believe investors should continue to focus on handsets that generate all of the profits & CF. Recommend caution regarding enterprise and operator exposure while overweighting consumer plays (NOK). ERICY shares are up strongly on excitement over AGM Tuesday. New CEO to be introduced but still don’t expect strategy update until end of Q2. Excitement due to AGM likely to be short lived. 2020insight.com Right on with that mid day scan G! RtS

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