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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group
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To: Sun Tzu who wrote (91087)4/8/2003 2:13:04 AM
From: Nadine Carroll  Read Replies (1) of 281500
 
My guess is that there will be a 3 months to a year period that the population may stay calm. After that it depends very much on how the power is being shared. Also, if the Baath party members are prosecuted Nuremberg style, it may actually keep the public calm for a while

I agree. The Americans must be seen to be planning to leave. So it's in the interest of the anti-American forces to make as much disorder as they can, to prevent the Americans from leaving long enough to get the Iraqis to turn on them. Some of the most sober cautioning voices are Israeli, who say that the Shi'a also threw rice when the Israelis invaded Lebanon to rid them of the hated PLO; fifteen years later, all the moderate Shi'a had been destroyed and Hizbullah had taken over.
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