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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 303.84

+1.3%

Dec 22 4:00 PM EST

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To: robert b furman who wrote (9334)	4/8/2003 5:29:02 PM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (1) of 95622

Bob, I think you may want to reign in the optimism just a bit. Technically the market has only shown me a few positives these last few months. Here are the most important. Higher volume on the upswings A couple of 9 to 1 upside volume days The ability to cross 200 day moving averages to the upside. Unfortunately we have not taken out any of the important previous highs and shown the ability for the market to stay above those 200 day moving averages. Now I am not saying it could not happen but let me tell you why I think it won't. Sentiment is too positive. There are too many bulls on that newsletter writer's poll. The VIX actually moved down 6.74% belwo 30 today while the DJIA closed down. Something is very wrong. We are very nearly in May. Yes that's right the month when the big boys sell their positions and go away to play at other things until say October. This is not a time to be comfortably long in my opinion. Maybe it is not a great time to be short either but if the rapid advance of our forces in Iraq has not lit enough of a fire under the market to clearly end this bear market then what will? RtS

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