Will Iraq?s Shia revolt ?
by Zeina Khodr ? Saturday April 05, 2003 at 09:09 AM
Day 16 of the war and the Iraqi Shi?a have not revolted against President Saddam Hussein as predicted by US war planners. But US officials think they will.
Saturday 05, April, 2003
Will Iraq?s Shia revolt ?
by Zeina Khodr
Day 16 of the war and the Iraqi Shi?a have not revolted against President Saddam Hussein as predicted by US war planners.
But US officials think they will. ?We think we will get their help in Baghdad, just like in Basra and Nassiriya, to fight against the regime,? the head of Joint Chiefs of Staff, Richard Myers, said last week.
On Thursday, US Central Command in Doha said the supreme leader of Iraq?s Shi?a community ? who is based in the Islamic holy city of Najaf ? Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani issued a religious decree calling on the people ?to remain calm and not to interfere with coalition actions.?
But Murtadha al-Kashmiri, a London representative of Sestani, said the cleric had asked followers not to take sides in the fighting in Najaf, denying that a formal fatwa had been issued.
Sistani last week issued a fatwa calling on ?Iraqis to fight against invading forces.? The cleric is one of the most revered religious figures in a country where the Shia make up over 60 percent of the population.
?Sistani, along with other Shia leaders in Iraq have been and are under extreme pressure from the government not to make any move against the leadership,? Saad Mehyo, a political analyst told Al Jazeera. ?But the confusion surrounding Sesteni?s stance shows his influence among the Shia.?
Khoei?s return
American reports of the fatwa coincided with the return of Sayyed Abdelmajid al-Khoei to Najaf after living in exile in London since the 1991 uprising.
American forces say they now control most of the city and Khoei accused Iraqi militiamen of using residents as ?human shields? around a revered tomb in the Imam Ali bin Abi Taleb mosque.
Shia have been among the victims of US-led attacks on Basrah city
CNN cable news however broadcast footage on Thursday 3 April showing something else - an angry crowd preventing troops from approaching the mosque.
Arab press reports said Khoei, whose late father was a leading Shia religious authority, reached Najaf with the help of US forces.
Najaf religious authorities took part in the 1991 uprising against the Baghdad government and many Shia religious leaders there have been purged by President Saddam Hussein.
Memories
?The majority of Shia still carry the wounds of 1991. They are not sure of the outcome of the war,? Dr. Ali Nuri Zadah of the Arab Iranian Study Centre told Al Jazeera. ?That is the major reason why they have not cooperated with the Americans.?
In 1991, the Iraqi Shia rose up against the government after years of repression and prosecution, expecting support from the international forces which ended Iraq's invasion of Kuwait. But that support never came and Hussein brutally crushed their uprising in the south and the Kurdish uprising in the north.
"The Americans and British are going to sell us out. Now we know that Saddam will never leave power," Ali Muhammad told AFP. "When the oil deals are done he will be allowed to kill all of us. We will be sacrificed."
Another Iraqi Shia, who was not named, told the French news agency: "We had control of many governorates in 1991, then the Americans allowed Saddam to come back. They are working together. You watch it will happen again this time.?
Balance of power
?I believe these feelings will change once the balance of power shifts and American and British forces manage to occupy strategic cities like Basra for example,? Mehyo said. ?The Shia are waiting for a chance to revolt against the regime.?
That view was shared by Hassan Krayem, a political analyst, who told Al Jazeera the position taken by Shia clerics in Najaf may also change if it becomes clear the Americans and British have the upper hand in the war.
But Sesteni?s fatwa was echoed by Shia Islamic leaders in Iran and Lebanon.
In Beirut, the spiritual leader of many Muslims around the world, Sheikh Mohammed Hussein Fadlallah, said: "Shia Muslims overcome internal suffering when threatened by outside forces. Iraqi people do not believe the war is aimed at liberating them, not at occupying their country.?
Fadlallah, however, stressed his stance did not mean he backed President Saddam Hussein. "The Muslim and Arab world's problem with America is that it creates tyrants, then replaces them with others who have superficial democratic features," Fadlallah, whose influence has spread beyond the borders of Lebanon and is linked to Najaf, said.
High profile Iraqi religious leaders in the holy Iranian city of Qum also said that Iraqi Shia were ?forbidden? to assist American and British forces.
?The anti-war rhetoric in Iran and Lebanon may also have influenced the stance of Shia Muslims in Iraq,? Ibrahim Bairam of the Lebanese daily An-Nahar wrote. ?Iran?s stance in denouncing the war has also had an impact.?
The Tehran-based Supreme Council of the Islamic Revolution in Iraq, SCIRI, one of Iraq?s largest Shia opposition groups has vowed that Shia in Baghdad would stay out of the conflict ?until they are certain the regime?s repressive machine has been annihilated.?
The group has reportedly been agitating for Khoei?s return to Iraq?s southern city of Najaf, but a spokesman denied that Washington was promoting a ?moderate? pro-American current among the Shia community at the expense of SCIRI.
?Washington does not want to deal with them (SCIRI),? Krayem said. ?It wants to work with more independent figures not tied to Iran.?
Nationalism
?I am not saying they (Iraqi Shia) don?t have nationalistic feelings? they do? but if they had the choice between a permanent dictator and a temporary occupation ? they will choose a temporary occupation,? Mehyo said. ?And it would be a grave mistake for the Americans if they interpret that position (when and if it happens) as a positive sign and stay in Iraq for a long-time. Then nationalistic sentiments will flare,? Mehyo said.
Bairam argues that Iraqi Shia have strong feelings of Arab nationalism despite conflict with successive Muslim Sunni governments.
?They issued an edict during the First World War banning collaboration with British forces battling the Ottoman Empire, ignoring the oppression exercised by Ottomans over Iraq?s Shi?a majority for centuries. The Shia played a major role in the 1920 rebellion against British colonialists.? Bairam wrote. ?They want to avoid being dubbed as having collaborated with foreign invaders.? --- Al Jazeera
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