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Biotech / Medical : ABTI Alpha-Beta Technology
ABTI 0.200+99,900.0%Jun 17 12:34 PM EST
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To: Cacaito who wrote (361)7/31/1997 10:29:00 PM
From: Zachary Prensky   of 572
 
Cacaito :

Thanks for replying to my message so soon! I have a significant position in the August 10 calls, and I'm seriously weighing whether or not to jump ship. I loaded up in the 1 3/8 - 11/16 range with the strategy that if the phase II was succesful 13 was a minimum with 16-17 possible; that would double to quadrouple my stake, with phase III chances of success at 60% as per Peter Drake of Vector Securities. Now, with the calls at 3, I can garner much if not most of my upside without having to wait. Tough call. My thoughts of bailing were further compounded by the bearish sentiment I got from two contacts, one of whom brandished the Amgen GCSF data. Now that you have debunked that, what's left of the bears case is (1) No strategic pharm partner. (2) data mining the phase II (3) shadow of Reg S overseas stock sales in the past. You seem to have attacked #2 in your previous posts. I don't think a lack of a coprporate parnter is all that negative, they just want to negotiate on a higher footing with positive phase III data. As for #3, that would apply to other co's, but for biotech the bottom line is whether the drug works, not where they got their funding from.

Overall, its a tough call (no pun intended). Any ideas?

ZP
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