Expect severe consequences from anti-U.S. stance
Failure to back U.S. war effort is foreign policy disaster
Diane Francis
Financial Post
Tuesday, April 08, 2003
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NEW YORK - The decision to officially sit out the Iraqi war is one of the biggest and most expensive foreign policy mistakes in Canadian history. A pantry on Wall Street shows just how upset Americans are toward some countries that are not their allies.
Northeast Securities Inc. is an investment bank with hundreds of employees and its personable vice-chairman, Bill Behrens, last week showed me a boycott list, under the headline "Don't Buy," that itemizes French consumer products.
"Look at some of these names," he said. "Chivas Regal, Glenlivet, a really good Scotch, Jacobs Creek, the Jerry Springer Show, Motown Records, Le Crueset kitchenware, Uniroyal Tires, Michelin Tires, B.F. Goodrich Tires, Culligan and DKNY. Imagine, Jerry Springer?"
There were no Canadian consumer products listed, but Canada is a huge "disappointment," he said. "Americans don't even think that there's a border. If Canada is not our best friend, then who is? Of course, Mexico's President Vicente Fox has been a wimp, too. And then there's Creetin? [Canada's Prime Minister]. Another one."
Mr. Behrens said he will boycott French products, but German products are another matter. That's because he's a Mercedes fan and also of German extraction. As for Canada, he said, it was business as usual and his firm just raised a US$5-million private placement for an outstanding Ontario corporation.
The financial sector aside, a backlash is certain to damage the Canadian economy and any companies doing business with the U.S. government or its agencies. It will also play into the hands of protectionists and competitors south of the border who will use "Buy America" arguments when up against Canadian rivals.
Then there's simple revenge.
"I have first-hand knowledge of a large U.S. contractor that I met in Florida that was told by his principals not to use French cement or Canadian steel in a high-rise condo building that he was putting up," wrote a Post reader last week.
Clearly, the Prime Minister and his Cabinet do not understand the United States nor what makes Americans tick. Their public relations incompetence is hideous -- Ottawa is disdained even though it has deployed more troops in Iraq than has Spain, which has gotten full marks for joining the coalition.
Damage control is impossible because positive news about pro-American rallies or resolutions in Canada are not being reported in the press to counteract the negative headlines. Any official capitulation will look like opportunism after the fact or an attempt to be part of the reconstruction of Iraq.
It's little wonder Canada's business community is mad, as are expatriates.
"This is the beginning of a longstanding rift that won't be forgotten by Americans. The first thing my friends say is, 'How could your Prime Minister do this and not support us?' " said investment banker Mart Bakal, a Winnipeg native who operates internationally out of this city. "These friends are incredibly wealthy, knowledgeable, sophisticated, well-educated, well-travelled, worldly and really rich. And they're mad. They're offended."
Mr. Bakal said Americans are more disappointed with Canada than about France, Germany or Mexico. "We're family. We were considered best friends and we should support each other blindly," he said. "Families have disagreements but to all the world you support one another."
The most obvious casualties are Montreal's engineering giant SNC-Lavalin Group Inc. and aerospace/defence supplier CAE Ltd., which vie for lucrative contracts with the U.S. government. Then there are those that rely on American regulatory bodies, such as Canadian Pacific Railway and Canadian National Railways or the softwood lumber producers, which should not expect a favourable resolution of their trade problem any decade soon.
"There are three issues Canadians have to be worried about," said Hershell Ezrin, president of public and government relations firm GPC International in Toronto. "First, whether Americans will want to get even. Secondly, security is going to trump trade every time, which could make it hard to convince Americans or others to build factories in Canada. If we miss an investment cycle, we pay for a very long time such as the election of the separatists in Quebec and the NDP in Ontario and B.C.; and thirdly, whether American consumers are going to boycott."
dfrancis@nationalpost.com
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