Fed refining emergency rescue plan
April 8, 2003
By Martin Crutsinger
WASHINGTON--Confronting
new fears of recession, the
Federal Reserve is refining an
emergency economic rescue
plan that includes further
interest rate cuts and billions of
dollars in extra cash for the
banking system.
The Fed's effort would be aimed
at pulling the country out of a
nosedive that has seen
465,000 jobs evaporate in just
the past two months, raising
fears among economists that
the weak recovery from the
2001 recession is in danger of
stalling out altogether.
''Clearly, the Fed is in uncharted
territory,'' said economist David
Jones. ''I think they will try some
experimental moves.''
One key element hasn't been
used successfully in a half-century.
Based on comments by Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan and other Fed officials, the
central bank is expected to move beyond its traditional buying and selling of short-term Treasury
securities held by banks to the direct purchase of longer-term securities in an effort to influence
long-term interest rates.
Also, Fed officials have indicated they are prepared in the event of an unexpected shock to the
system to lend massive amounts of money directly to commercial banks to make sure financial
markets do not freeze up.
As a third policy option, Fed officials have indicated they would explicitly state that if the federal
funds rate is moved below its current 1.25 percent, it probably will stay at the lower level as long as
needed to get the economy on its feet--which would help investors' worries about a sudden jump in
interest rates down the road.
The fact that Fed officials have been so open in discussing these options underscores the need
the central bank sees to restore investor confidence that has been shaken by the fact that the
Fed's aggressive two-year campaign to cut short-term rates has yet to produce a sustainable
economic recovery.
The Fed's target for the federal funds rate, the interest that banks charge for overnight loans, is
now at a 41-year low of 1.25 percent.
''The Fed is trying to buck up fragile confidence,'' said Mark Zandi, chief economist at
Economy.com. ''They know that everyone is asking the question: What can be done if the U.S.
economy slides back into a recession and it ignites a deflationary cycle?''
Greenspan in a speech in December in New York noted that the Fed from 1942 to 1951, as part of
an agreement with the White House, successfully capped long-term Treasury yields at 2.5 percent
as a way to hold down borrowing costs to finance World War II.
However, private economists note that a later Fed effort dubbed ''Operation Twist''--in which the
central bank sold short-term Treasury securities and bought long-term securities in the early 1960s
in an effort to influence rates at both ends of the yield curve--was judged to be a failure because
the central bank did not make the transactions in large enough amounts.
''If you want to produce results, you have to convince markets that you are serious and will do
whatever it takes to alter the rate structure,'' said former Fed board member Lyle Gramley.
The Fed made just such a massive response on Sept. 12, 2001, the day after the terrorist attacks,
when it lent a record $46 billion to banks in a single day to keep the financial system functioning.
Fed officials have indicated their battle plan has been influenced heavily by reviewing the mistakes
made by the Bank of Japan, which has been unable to jump-start that country's economy for more
than a decade despite driving short-term interest rates to zero.
Fed officials believe the Bank of Japan's biggest mistake was being slow to respond after that
country's real estate bubble burst in the late 1980s.
Vincent Reinhart, the Fed's top monetary policy staffer, told an economic conference recently that
the Fed is striving to act pre-emptively before falling prices become entrenched.
''The best policy for dealing with deflation is to avoid it strenuously by acting pre-emptively,'' he said.
Because of this, some economists believe the Fed will not wait until its May 6 meeting to put its plan
into effect, opting to cut the federal funds rate through an emergency conference call, possibly as
soon as this week.
Other analysts argue that the Fed probably will wait, hoping that the favorable tide of the war will
bolster markets in coming weeks and restore confidence.
''I think they will hold off cutting rates again to see if an early, successful conclusion to the war has
the desired effect everybody is hoping it will have,'' Zandi said.
AP |
