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Technology Stocks : Ascend Communications (ASND)
ASND 200.33-3.2%11:49 AM EST
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To: Tony Wang who wrote (7693)7/31/1997 11:18:00 PM
From: Tulvio Durand   of 61433
 
Tony, that's the same problem with all these models. One can describe the wave motion after the fact by applying the theory to explain the data. But, for whatever reason, one will not consistently get a good fit going forward, ie., predictive accuracy of any of the models is not that great.

I spent some time trying to predict the pitching motions of an aircraft carrier and met with the same general results. Sometimes I got lucky and made great predictions. At other times the predictions were 180 degrees out of phase.

Regards,

Tulvio
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