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Technology Stocks : MSFT Internet Explorer vs. NSCP Navigator
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To: Gerald R. Lampton who wrote (367)7/23/1996 10:31:00 PM
From: Bill Fischofer   of 24154
 
A lot of suppositions here.

1, MSFT's position has strengthened immensely over the past six months and will grow much more so over the next six. The battle was only really joined just a few weeks ago with the release of IE 3.0 Beta 1. I haven't used Navigator since Beta 2 was released. By the time IE 4.0 hits towards the end of the year the browser market will be effectively closed for the 80%+ of the computers on the planet which run Windows.

2. At the rate the web is changing, yesterday's market share numbers don't amount to much. Netscape 2.0 is a lot closer to Mosaic 1.0 than to where IE 4.0 (and presumably NSCP's then-current version of Navigator) will be by the end of the year. Momentum is on MSFT's side. They are setting the agenda and ensuring that the battle will be fought on their turf. I suppose you could characterize the U.S. mobilization after Pearl Harbor as "reactive" too. But that's about the scale of the directional shift MSFT has gone through. Barksdale may talk a brave line but he knows that he's the one on the hot seat.

3. MSFT has made it very clear that they aren't confined to the Windows world. IE 3.0 and ActiveX will be offered on Mac and UNIX by 1Q97. Between MSFT and Apache, just how is NSCP going to compete in the UNIX market going foward? Where is the revenue stream?

4. Corporate Intranets are in the same stage as Ethernet deployment was maybe 10 years ago. It frankly doesn't matter what NSCP's install base is today. As the NT 4.0 migration begins in in earnest over the next 12 months, NSCP will come under intense pricing pressure. The key in the corporate market isn't who has the static market share at any given time but who has the investment stream, since future deployments are sure to dwarf today's rudimentary Intranet infrastructures. In this regard, MSFT is in the driver's seat since the Active Desktop is the canvas on which the Intranet is going to be viewed.

5. To compete with MSFT, NSCP must convince the world that they are the applications platform of the future. If you believe they will be successful in this goal, then that is what you must base your investment decision on. But right now the odds of this happening are very long.

6. Independent of what you believe are the prospects of Netscape the company, the prospects of NSCP the stock in this market are doubtful over the short term. NSCP longs should weigh their risk/reward ratios very carefully. When the bears finish gnawing on the IOMG bones NSCP is going to start looking awfully tasty.
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