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Biotech / Medical : OSTEOTECH (OSTE)

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To: Lauren who wrote (14)	8/1/1997 12:10:00 AM
From: Elvis Jones	of 141

Lauren, Are you still here and in OSTE? I just had an opportunity to really dig into some of the info from the IBD "New America" report from July 10th. Some facts... In 1991, the allograft market share was 17.7% of all U.S. bone transplants. By 1996, the market share was up to 29.6%. By 2002, allograft market share should exceed 50% (my estimate). From 1991 to 1996, allograft revenues outgrew autograft revenues (15.4% vs. 0.9%). Last year allowgraft revenues grew by 20.0% while autograft revenues DECLINED (-1.4%)! OSTE's growth has been 68% better than allograft in general (25% vs. 14.8%) over the last four years. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- My estimates of fair value are... (1998, $18) (1999, $24). (I used 28x IBD's listed projected EPS for these numbers)

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