Booms, Busts, and Recoveries Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: TobagoJack who wrote (31188)	4/10/2003 6:05:44 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Read Replies (1) of 74559

i too own Shangri-La, although i reduced my position by 75% at higher levels. i think there is still considerable downside to HK/China names. anything travel related just looks like a crap shoot right now to me. the problem is, nobody knows how long it will take to control SARS. in the meantime, equity could be wiped out at leveraged operators. how long does the equity hold out if occupancy is at 10%? having said that, i think there could be some great opportunities if the SARS decline lasts long enough to cause a lot of BKs and really tank the market. possibly a true blood in the streets opportunity in the making. but a 20-25% haircut from recent highs is not exactly "blood in the streets" in my book. i was able to pick up Shangri-La for cheaper than yesterday's close in late September.

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