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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (31260)4/11/2003 12:27:45 AM
From: EL KABONG!!!  Read Replies (3) of 74559
 
Darfot,

Developing vaccines is serious business, not something one can whip up with a Junior Science Kit in the kitchen.

Even after identifying the gene sequence of the virus, the researchers must be sure that there is only one virus, not a virus plus another virus, not a mutant of an original virus, not a currently mutating virus, not a symbiotic relationship between say a virus and a bacterium and on and on nearly ad infinitum until the researchers are nearly 100% certain that they have isolated the agent responsible.

Sometimes that's relatively easy, such as in the case of bacterium, which are quite large in size compared to other things that can infect us. Unfortunately, most viruses are quite small by comparison. Sometimes we can't even see a virus in an electron microscope because it's too small. We are aware of its presence though, because the human body builds antibodies to the virus, and we can detect the presence of the antibodies.

Now, all of what I've just said in a few sentences, is actually months and possibly years of work in a research laboratory outfitted with the best available medical research equipment and staffed by the best researchers in the world. It's not an easy task.

Culturing organisms also takes time. The human gestation period is approximately 9 months. To reproduce organisms also takes X amount of time, which we could very loosely call a gestation period. Viruses take anywhere from a day to many days to reproduce themselves. In order to research them, we need them to reproduce in sufficient quantities that they can be effectively studied. In short, more time...

Developing a vaccine for a bacterium could, in theory, be relatively quick, largely because bacterium are easier to see and easier to study. Five years might not be an unusual length of time to develop a vaccine. And then add a few more years for testing and more testing before something could be released to the general public. If there were an emergency need for the vaccine (say the entire world was dying from some plague), then of necessity, short cuts in the process would be reluctantly permitted.

Developing a vaccine for a virus is quite different. Using the example of the West Nile virus, there is a small company (British, I think) that is trying something entirely new. They have attempted to cut short the research period by identifying the genetic sequence of the West Nile virus, which I believe is now completed or nearly complete. They intend to take the standard yellow fever vaccine, remove the yellow fever virus genetic sequence from the existing vaccine and replace it with the genetic sequence from the West Nile virus. This has never been done before. It is experimental. The hope is to cut short the length of time needed to develop an effective vaccine, from an estimated 10 to 12 years, down to 2 to 5 years. Even after this biotechnology firm succeeds in creating this experimental vaccine, there will still be years of testing on animals and lab subjects before approval for the general population is granted.

So, 5 years is not a long time to develop a vaccine.

KJC
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