PB, the sars death rate is not 3% or 4%. That's the cumulative total of deaths as a percentage of the cumulative total of infections.
Because infections lead deaths by something like a week, the death rate is actually more than 4% and more like 7%.
Most people would realize that one needs to show up in the infected numbers before one appears in the deceased numbers. What is of concern to the normal sort of human is the probability of dying if they get the infection. In Hong Kong and China it's more like 7%. In the USA, for some reason, it's more like 1% [none have died but one or two have needed mechanical breathing help, so there's an above zero risk]. 7% death rate is a lot worse than a normal sort of flu, which some people are trying to call this. That would mean 6 billion x 7% = 420 million dead if everyone is tested against the virus and it stays as fatal as it is in Hong Kong. 420 million dead people and a LOT of seriously sick people is a lot of damage. Of course that's the absolute worst it can do, unless it mutates into a more killing style and more infectious in which case it could echo around for a generation and get a lot more.
<Cumulative deaths. Bad counting in the early days due to poor reporting from China.
x = 10 dead, rounded to the nearest 10.
26 Feb ?
..5 Mar x
12 Mar x
19 Mar x
26 Mar xx
..2 Apr xxxxx
..9 Apr xxxxxxxxxx
16 Apr xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx [my guess = 180, increased by 50 from a couple of days ago]
Of those infected [excluding the USA where nobody seems to die], about 7% seem to die. With 2700 cumulative cases now observed, that would mean 189 deaths, which take something like a week to happen after SARS is first diagnosed.
Given that there have been very extensive efforts to curb the bug over the past month in Hong Kong, but without success, nobody should look at the graph with equanimity. As numbers increase, the battle will increasingly be fought individually by infected populations.
There won't be much kissing under the mistletoe come Xmas. Kissing scenes in movies will be dropped as anachronisms. People will recoil rather than enjoy the vicarious thrill of watching on-screen pashing. Japanese-style bowing in greeting will become the norm. Maori hongis will go the way of the dodo. Hongi = nose pressing and breath mingling.
Whoever patents a vaccine should make a lot of money
>http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=18815704
Unless there's a vaccine developed or it gets cut off by reducing vectors of transmission, which so far isn't working, or something else stops it, it still has potential to be a biggie.
Mqurice |
