SARS panic exaggerated
More Germans die falling from ladders
By Werner Mussler
Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung
So far, there have been no deaths related to SARS reported in Germany, yet TV crews are still pulling night duty outside hospitals where suspected SARS patients - and potential SARS victims - are being treated.
Indeed, anyone who has followed the news of late must think we're on the brink of a new pandemic that will eliminate half of Southeast Asia's population, affect every traveler in the region, and wreak havoc on the world economy. Many German companies have told employees to cancel business trips to China.
The way the disease has been perceived is reminiscent of similar panic attacks in the past - and not in the distant past, either: Think of the footage of staggering cows borrowed from British broadcasters when the first BSE case was detected in a German cow in 2000. Beef disappeared from supermarket shelves, yet today BSE is almost completely forgotten. As is anthrax, which caused epidemic alerts in virtually every post office in Germany for weeks after Sept. 11.
No one disputes that SARS is an extremely serious illness, and in Asia it will probably claim several hundred lives. Yet the fact remains that many more people in China are routinely killed in car accidents or even murdered, though this has probably never deterred a European businessman from traveling to that country. In Germany, the risk from SARS is even smaller: Even if, tragically, a few Germans did die from the disease, the number would still pale in comparison with other causes of mortality: Every year, 500 people in Germany drown, 600 burn to death, 1,000 are murdered, 4,000 die after falling from a ladder at home, and 8,000 are killed in traffic accidents.
A German economic statistician, Walter Krämer, cites these figures to underline his argument that most people have a distorted perception of apparent and actual risks. “A manager might not fly to China now because of SARS but next week he'll go on Easter vacation in his car, though the chances that he will die in a car accident are much higher than those of catching SARS in China,“ Krämer notes.
The example can be applied to many other cases, which is what Krämer did in his book on inappropriate risk assessment and unfounded panic, Die Panik-Macher (The Panic Makers). The thesis of the book: The fear of a certain danger is often in inverse proportion to the danger itself. Known or voluntarily incurred risks are usually underestimated whereas unknown, externally caused risks are exaggerated.
For Krämer, SARS is a perfect example of this: “The disease is (still) unknown and thus raises fears. Everybody knows influenza, which is why the danger it entails is usually considered minor, even though influenza epidemics have killed millions in the past.“
“There are many ways to protect ourselves from panic makers spoiling our lives,“ Krämer says. “And the easiest way is not to get upset about dangers which aren't there.“
Apr. 11
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