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Technology Stocks : CPI Aerostructures (CVU)- Take a Look (was CPI)
CVU 2.770+17.1%Oct 30 3:59 PM EDT

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To: CJ Owen Critchley who started this subject4/11/2003 10:16:07 AM
From: leigh aulper   of 213
 
messages.yahoo.com
from the shiek
I'll give a little history for the Newbie. In 1998 the company had a mix of 50% Military and Commercial contracts. They had a very big contract for the MD-11 that got cancelled. This was the first round of bad news. Then they focused on military contracts and there seemed to be good growth there offsetting the commercial decline in their business. Then they bought Kolar. The thinking is that the machining shop could supply some of the parts used in the assembling business. Things were growing great and then came the Asian contagion. Kolar had a concentrated customer called Dover Industries and their order flow of robotic shuttles for circuit boards came to a stop. This killed the eps on CVU. Their aerospace business ended up feeding the Kolar loser. They tried cutting back and ultimately they shut it down. They tried restructuring but the banks were real difficult.

End of 2001 they took the writeoff on Kolar. Huge losses were posted yet the company was trading below book value. Then in April it became clear with company guidance that they had some big contracts underway like the t-38 contract. The stock ran up and then stumbled as people worried about the balance sheet. The company put up great eps numbers and planned on fixing the balance sheet in November but no one believed them and the stock dropped. In Dec 02 they announced a secondary and most of the investors didn't understand how secondaries worked and were so concered with dilution that they panic sold the stock.

In Feb 03 the secondary got completed on time to many's amazement - (not mine) and then the institutions bought what they couldn't get in the offering.

The biggest change in this company is the shareholder base. With the secondary we got about 40% institutional interest up from the measly 5% before. This is huge because now the company can trade based upon its true market value. The investors that flocked to this stock in april and may were not the brightest tools in the shed and really didn't understand the company's vision and how conservative management was and made poor judgements on valuation. Now there is liquidity in the stock and long term institutional players that understand value.

Good luck to all longs. My basis is Nov 99 - The company did not go public via a reverse merger.
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