Trust me ..................................
Ramsey,
<< Trust me. >>
Why should a Nokia long trust a Nokia short?
Why would anyone "trust" an individual that rounds 31% to 40%?
<< very creative conclusions but not remotely close to reality >>
Whose "reality"? Your conception of same I assume?
<< try not to conclude first and analyze later, which is what you have done >>
Your analysis appears to be considerably more "creative" than any conclusions I have drawn.
<< News from China is no different from news anywhere else in the world. A little of it is true but most are plain bullshit. >>
In some respects you are probably correct. Abstracts from services like AFX, ChinaNex, AsiaBizTech, and others, aren't all that different than Bloomberg, Briefing.com, et al. Always best to attempt to get to the source of what is being abstracted. One complication is the translation issue. First there is the skill of the interpreter to consider, not just with language, but with familiarity with the industry that the news concerns. China news adds another dimension and that is that the media is somewhat more managed by the state and so is the news than many countries where wireless news originates. Please feel free to correct me if that has changed dramatically lately.
<< Let us look at that one article from the 5 vendors about WCDMA. Yes, that was written by the 5 vendors in hopes of influencing future MII decisions. Of the 5 vendors, only Huawei is Chinese and has been paid off by Nokia. >>
I'm a little slow, as you know, being a Nokia long and all, but let me get this straight. You are saying that five firms got together at the local internet cafe. One was Chinese, one Swedish, one Finnish, one Japanese, the other Canadian.
The Canadian said to the Japanese, who said to the Finn, who said to the Swede, who said to the Chinese, we all need to get together and lobby the Beijing Morning Post to announce that we have passed 3GSM WCDMA trials, but the Americans didn't pass, and neither did your Chinese competitor, and since you are the local guy and know the Beijing Morning Post dudes better than we do, if you get this done for us we'll let you come out first in the rankings.
If Nokia paid off Huawei I would think Nokia would have wanted to come out first in the rankings. BWDIK.
<< Trust me, there will be NO WCDMA in China until you see at least 50% Chinese manufacturers able and ready to get the infra as well as handset orders. >>
We've been through the "trust me" thing.
As for NO WCDMA in China that kinda reminds me of when Qualcomm said: NO SIM in CDMA. Its against our 5 Principles. China said: If NO SIM in CDMA, then NO CDMA in China. Voila! Instant SIM. Well not instant, but darn near. So much for the last of the 5 Principles. Soon China will even be able to trial the SIM inside the "GSM1X Solution".
Where does this leave 3G CDMA2000? I only see one Chinese vendor in this list and I'm not sure they are going to be working on the infra side of the equation?
Ericsson, LG Electronics, Lucent Technologies, Motorola, Nortel Networks, Qualcomm, Samsung and ZTE have committed to provide wireless operators with CDMA2000 infrastructure, terminal equipment, or related technology to offer commercial service at 2.1 GHz frequency. ... 2.1 GHz equipment will be available for customer trial and testing purposes as early as September 2002 and commercially available as early as February 2003.The initial trial equipment will be developed to potentially support the 3G trial efforts of China's Ministry of Information Industries (MII). - CDG Aug. 20, 2002 -
<< Chinese handsets are already up to an estimated 40% market share right now, even though an unknown percentage is simply chinese-labeled foreign handsets. >>
My calculation (132mm ÷ 423.4mm) yields 31.2% of the worlds production. I am using Gartner Dataquests estimates for worldwide sell in ÷ MII's figures for China production for 2002 and I do not think that there has been much increase this quarter just concluded in terms of China's market share of worldwide handsets produced and actually sold into channels. I do, of course, expect the numbers to increase. What numbers are you using? Are you throwing in Taiwan? Is my math incorrect? I have trouble rounding 31.2% to 40%.
Nokia produced 35.8% (151,421,800 units) of the worlds handsets last year and manufactured 21% of that production in China. Of those 32,287,000 units produced, 20,940,000 (65%) were exported and the remainder sold locally. It will be interesting to see if China production including Nokia's this year exceeds Nokia's total production.
<< Finally, I will restate my opinion that there will be no winners in the handset business. >>
You and Clayton Christensen have something in common although I think you know more about wireless than Clayton, and despite your somewhat limited grasp, probably more about Nokia. OTOH he has published a few books however, and he seems to be on legitimate podiums as opposed to soapboxes more often. This subject would probably be a good discussion for the Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates thread, since it has been discussed there before.
Before we close, I must say that I appreciate your ongoing efforts to save me from myself, but while you've dazzled me with opinionated opinion, I am still into fact.
<< I was having fun ... >>
Message 18829647
Yes, that was fun.
Have a Great Nokia Day,
- Eric - |
