NH and the war
Polstate.com
Wednesday | April 09, 2003
This bulk of this entry was written before the start of the war. The intent was to capture my understanding of the political situation in the State before the war began. In particular, I wanted to capture how the war debate had changed the political landscape. One portion has been edited reflect new polling data - which confirms that the war had really become the only issue.
I will get to the horserace numbers in a second, but I first want to start by looking at the war debate, and how it is changed New Hampshire Politics. Specifically, there are three trends that have emerged:
There are obvious signs that the Reagan Democrat has re-emerged after his/her long slumber
The war has allowed the GOP to heal significant divisions within the party
The majority of the Democratic Party, and more importantly the part that will vote in the primary, is moving left
These trends are seen in two ways: one through comparison of Exit Poll data from 2000 with recent poll results from UNH. The second is less from poll data, than from press reports of campaign activity.
In 2000, NH was one of the closest states in the Country: Bush won 48-47. Nader got 4, and tipped the State to Bush.
The table below compares some of the exit poll numbers from 2000 against the results of the UNH Granite Poll taken Feb 6-12th:
2000 Exit Poll
2003 Granite Poll
Final 2000 %/Bush approval
2000 Exit Poll= 48
2003 Granite Poll= 65
% of Democrats who voted for Bush (2000) versus
Democrats who Approve of the President (2003) and approve of ground troops
2000 Exit Poll= 6
2003 Granite Poll= 38 Approve
35 Favor Ground troops
Bush’s strongest group by income
2000 Exit Poll=Over 100 K
2003 Granite Poll=60-75K
Bush’s weakest group by income
2000 Exit Poll= 15-30 K
2003 Granite Poll= Over 100K !!!
Independent’s support for Bush (2000) and Independents approval for Bush and support for ground troops
2000 Exit Poll= 43
2003 Granite Poll= 56 Approve
58 Favor Ground troops
What these numbers show is how the debate on the war is shaping politics. Bush is up 17 points over his 2000 total. Most of this is accounted for by a dramatic increase in support among Democrats and Independents, which correlates almost exactly with their position on ground troops. As in the 80’s, this increase is not tied to income but rather to views on National Security. In fact, the Reagan Democrat tended to be lower middle class, and not wealthy.
The critical political question is what happens to this support once the war is over. If the war goes well, Bush may be able to convert some of this support into a lasting political majority.
Above I also said that the Democratic party was moving left. In part, this is based on the fact the average Democrat opposes war with Iraq by 56 to 38, while the rest of the country supports ground troops by over 2 to 1. Additionally, to date the candidates doing well in New Hampshire are to the left: Kerry and Dean are both running to the left of where Gore and Clinton ran. Finally, when you talk to people, one thing you hear over and over is that the losses of 2002 were the result of the party blurring its message. People want the party to be clearer in drawing distinctions from Bush - and usually this means they want the party to be more liberal as well.
Finally, on the eve of war it is important to talk about Howard Dean. Dean was the only major candidate outspokenly against the war. This fact was beginning to give him traction: over 200 attended a recent breakfast for him. Other candidates attracted less than 100. Virtually every candidate who was for the war found their event's dominated by discussion of their position. It is fair to say that given the polling about the war, Dean’s opening in NH is significant. His ability to capitalize on this will obviously depend on how the war goes. It is worth noting, however, that the increased Buzz for Dean among activists has not yet translated into higher poll numbers, as shown in the table below. (The last sentence was written before two polls came out in NH, both showing Dean gaining about 7 points, and moving into a tie with Kerry)
(chart at link)
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