You could be right, it probably depends on how confident he is of the result and costs. If they believe their own triumphalist rhetoric, they go in before the election. Hard to argue with 80% approval ratings. The Party Line today, is that Regime Change for the rest of the Dominoes, will not require Force (just the Threat of Force). When this doesn't happen (the Syrians have been at war with Israel since 1948 and lost every battle, yet show no sign of yielding), then it'll be necessary to let the world know our threats are credible. But the build-up to war may be just as effective in creating a "rally round the flag" effect, as the actual war.
So, the Syrians are now going to be put in the same double-bind that worked so well in Iraq:
If they give to us their Iraqi WMD and war criminals, they are guilty.
If they don't hand them over, they are guilty.
Only by proving a negative (proving they don't have WMD), can they establish innocence.
Can you prove you don't have a suitcase Bomb, provided to you by Al Queda? Even after your house, car, workplace, and the houses of all your relatives and friends have been searched, there is always another place you could be hiding it. |
