Aviron Message Board - Msg: 1883987

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Biotech / Medical : Aviron

AVIR 3.060

-12.3%

12:44 PM EST

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To: Brad C. Dunlap who wrote (75)	8/1/1997 9:49:00 AM
From: nelli	of 645

Hi Brad, You have to realize first of all that you are talking to someone who has never taken a flu shot in her life, not because I am afraid of the shots but because I am blessed with good health and good genetics. Our company has had flu shots over the years and I see the others line up in the hallway and do it. Frankly, I don't do it when it's free and I certainly wouldn't pay for it. I think as you do that material costs between the two are probably a wash, however, Aviron would probably need to charge a lot for the nasal delivery in order to make up for the research money spent on costly clinical trials. It looks from the press releases that they, like other biotechs, are usng this as a primary product to establish a revenue flow to fund other developing projects (like Neurex!) What premiums can you place on a better easier delivery? I really cannot say. The others line up and get their shots and then they take their chances in the winter. If they are vaccinated against the right strain of the flu then they are good but if not then they get it anyway and noone seems to complain, it's the luck of the draw. Like haolin says it doesn't have a great effect on most people to have the flu. (no, not like AIDS at all) A while ago a dental laser got approved and I asked the local dentist what he thought and he said it and other technologies are great but the company will turn the corner when insurance companies pick up on it... I think the case may apply here as well. If insurance companies pick up and employers pick up on the cost I see AVIR having a great future, but the competition is stiff and I just don't see that happening. And then there is that issue of the patent. But while we talk the price of AVIR is skyrocketing and I am feeling the pinch. The spread was 1/2 yesterday mornig and I am glad to see it at only 1/8 as we open. Good luck to all and I hope we are at the top.

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