Neville: I suggested first on April 8th that the NDX, Comp. and Sox may have topped out, the DJIA and SPX may not have done so.
I outlined my thinking then:
investorshub.com
Now today we saw the SPX close at its second highest level since the rally began and above the 200 dma. That was sixteen trading days ago. Wow. So, we could go a bit higher on these averages but that is a risky proposition.
I still think the NDX and Comp. have topped out but the relative strength of the SPX may have or has slowed the process.
On the subject of the NDX, sixteen days ago it was at 1099 and now is at 1048. We did not spike up above that high like we did on the SPX a few days back to make a higher high. No, we made a lower high. And the VXN divergence with price is the same as it was at prior tops after today although we are in max pain period.
Here is the weekly Vxn and the lower bollinger has provided for reversals previously:
stockcharts.com[r,a]whcaynay[pb20!b50!b200!c20!d20,2!f][iLb14!La12,26,9!Li10,10!Lh5,5!Lp14,3,3]&pref=G
So, the roles have reversed, perhaps, in this nowhere market. Looks like the NDX, Comp. and Sox are/will lead this leg down and the SPX and DJIA will follow sometime soon. |
