Hi Steven, thanks for the thoughtful post. I'll try and respond in detail to the pessimistic slant, (although I've grown a bit weary of that position), since I realize you're trying to make an honest effort at tackling these issues.
First, I'll address the "gloom and doom" comment...
In any war to free a nation, negative things will happen during the transition. No nation is a utopian model of beauty and perfection. There are *issues* which always remain. We have race problems in America. We have poverty, we have crime, and we have lawlessness. That doesn't mean we also don't have a wonderful caring open society as well.
We've nearly completed a major victory. We have freed millions of people. My point is, it's time to celebrate the fact that a young child in Iraq will now not have to grow up fearing his door being knocked down, and his father dragged off to be tortured and killed. You can always hand wring and look for another problem area around the corner. My criticism is, why don't I see any words of celebration in your posts toward what we *have* achieved. It's a wonderful thing Steven! An entire nation has been released from bondage, released from the grip of fear, released from a living hellhole, released from torture, servitude and slavery.
Can't you find any words of celebration in what has happened?
I actually expected more surrendering and less fighting than actually occurred. I was pretty optimistic about that.
If you've ever been optimistic regarding our military strategy and execution, I sincerely missed it.
Weighing the specific concerns of reconstruction, I don’t see any similar grounds, and I certainly don’t see any credible reason for optimism being presented here.
No credible reason at all? How about the fact that millions of people who've been living in near starvation, will be able to reap the harvest of all that oil wealth? Thirty years from now, Iraq will look more like Kuwait or Saudi Arabia. Their quality of life will significantly improve. Those dusty roads will be replaced with modern highways. The Hussein schools will be replaced with vibrant universities. And business leaders will replace the tank columns.
Our problem now is what happens in the next few months. Many seem to have forgotten, but we still have an ongoing fight against terrorism and Islamic radicalism to win, and it’s a long way from won. A lot of the coming battles will be much more complex and much more difficult than the one we just fought.
The link between Iraq and terrorism has been clearly demonstrated. We won't win this battle overnight, or even in the next few months, but we've dealt a vicious blow to those who build suicide-bombing suits. We’ve also struck a severe blow to a major center of cash, which infuses this movement.
I notice that you didn’t respond to any of the specific problems I cited as being obstacles to effective reconstruction. Does that mean you don’t acknowledge their existence?
I acknowledge many of them *could* exist. However, as I said previously, they've become too much of a focus of attention.
Right now, I have to say that things look even harder than I expected.
There you go again. Actually, I think they appear much easier than expected. The coalition has held firm, many of the Iraqi people have met us with open arms, and the American military is going about its business with a steadfast professionalism, which is second to none.
The US is introducing a force of armed Iraqi exiles loyal to Chalabi. This is pretty dumb: even if their loyalty really is to Chalabi, they have to be presented as loyal to a free Iraq. The Kurdish reaction to Chalabi has been worse than I expected: the word “unacceptable” has been floating around. A prominent moderate Shiite leader was stabbed to death almost as soon as he got to Iraq. None of this bodes well.
Once again, you're focusing everything under the eye of worst-case scenario. It reminds me a lot of the same thing we heard regarding the Turkish situation. People have opinions and they express them. Many don't seem to understand that dissent and argument are a part of the democratic process. Chaliba may or may not become a big factor in the next government of Iraq. That's up to the Iraqi people to work out. We've simply created the environment in which they may succeed. But hear this Steven, *anything* they come up with will be a heck of a lot better then Saddam Hussein's living hell!
We will soon have an enormous civilian footprint in Iraq. Oil company people, aid workers, technicians of every description will be flowing in to handle the reconstruction needs. Every one of them will be a target for terrorists. How do we protect these people? How do we prevent terrorist organizations from moving people in and out of Iraq? Do we trust the existing Iraqi police force and border patrol? Can we trust them? If we can’t trust them, who will protect our people there? Are we going to deploy American soldiers to manage internal security in Iraq? This may seem like a hypothetical issue now, but if a suicide bomber kills a bunch of American engineers, it will become a very pressing concern very quickly. Can you say with any confidence that this will not happen?
How do we protect them, is akin to saying, how do we protect Americans from terrorism in our own country. Yes, some bad things will happen. But the tide has turned, terrorism is on the run and we will do what we can to help build a terror free nation in Iraq. But make no mistake, there is no panacea, and we shouldn't anticipant one to emerge in a few months time.
Here’s a scenario that I think is very likely. We have evidence that a charismatic Shiite leader with links to Iran is implicated in a terrorist plot. An arrest would certainly provoke rioting. The will and ability of local security forces to confront such a riot is questionable. What do you do? Send in troops or police from another area? Obviously you don’t want to send Sunnis, but do you send other Shiites to confront a Shiite mob claiming that their leader was framed? Do you want to send Americans?
Here's another scenario. A charismatic Shiite leader emerges who embraces a renaissance in Islamic theology, whereby Islam tolerates other religions, including the Jews. I believe people are going to be surprised by how easily the religious elements in Iraq accept pluralism, democracy and resent terrorism. Yes, there will be ugly incidents like the one which happened the other day, but they will be the exception, not the norm. Just depends on which mental model you wish to look at. The negative one, or the positive one.
One scene that I remember fairly vividly was the confrontation between a Shiitie crowd and a group of American soldiers that wanted to enter a mosque. You’ve seen it, I’m sure, it’s the one where an American officer shouts “everybody smile” at his troops. The crowd was definitely not smiling; they looked pretty damned mean, and these were people who have every reason to hate Saddam. That probably did hate Saddam, but they didn’t seem terribly happy with us either. The American unit backed off. It takes fairly rugged cojones for an unarmed crowd to face down an invading army, a lot more courage than it takes to smash a Saddam portrait these days. There were more people in that crowd than in most of the “celebration” footage I’ve seen. It’s not a terribly pleasant memory, but it made an impact.
Looks like you missed the huge celebrations in the north. Once again, we can focus on the negative images, negative possibilities or positive ones. Personally, I saw the huge crowds lining the streets from the north to south waving and welcoming our troops. They could have stayed home and not risked the bullets flying around, but they chose not to. This one is not even a close call in my eyes. By a huge margin, the Iraqi people are welcoming us as liberators. In no society on earth would the number be 100 percent. The fact that a foreign army, which doesn't even speak the same language, is welcomed to the degree its been, tells of the United States influence in spreading liberty.
Too tired to go on, as you may know, my writing skills are nowhere near as well honed as yours.
Take Care, Steven |
