Precious and Base Metal Investing Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : Precious and Base Metal Investing

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To: jimsioi who wrote (9756)	4/15/2003 10:17:59 AM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (2) of 39344

There is an important fundamental that should be highly supportive of metals and CRB. The printing presses are really in overdrive. I looked for a chart of M2 six month change to illustrate it, but it is shown in this weekend's Barrons. Latest M2 change over that period is running 15% annualized. The question then is where does all this money go. The economy doesn't have much productive use for it, so it's mostly to fuel further maladjustments in the credit and mortgage bubble, which in turn balloons the trade imbalance and benefits foreigners. It is definitely negative for the USD. Might be a good time to look at China and other emerging markets, especially with the SARS correction underway. And much of this should flow into commodities as well. Just looking at trader's commitment, with the perplexing exception of Au, there has been some nice improvement: copper shows a plus commercial hedger position, somewhat unusual, crude oil especially looks bullish from a COT point of view with specs short about 51m bbl. The ag complex (wheat, corn, not soybeans) looks pretty bullish too.

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